20180903-中国银河国际证券-Strategy_6页_1mb

Short Selling Analysis for August 24

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of short-selling activity in Hong Kong stocks as of August 24, based on data released by the Hong Kong Securities Clearing Corporation (HKSC). The analysis is conducted using three key criteria: (i) the net change in short positions between August 17 and August 24; (ii) short positions as a percentage of free float; and (iii) the absolute amount of short positions. The data highlights companies that may be vulnerable to short-selling pressure and those that show a decline.

Key Findings

Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347.HK)

• Net change in short positions: Increased by 22.9% during the week ended August 24.
• Short positions as a percentage of free float: Equivalent to 3.22%.
• Absolute short positions: HK$272.429 million.
• Price change: Declined by 3.8% from HK$22.25 to HK$21.4.
• Market Cap: HK$22,275 million.
• 2018E PER: 17.59.
• 2019E PER: 15.94.
• PER: 1.65.
• 2018E Dividend yield: 1.58%.
• Short positions / 3-month average daily turnover: 1.32.
• Conclusion: Requires close monitoring due to rising short positions.

China Aoyuan (3883.HK)

• Net change in short positions: Decreased by 26.8% during the week ended August 24.
• Short positions as a percentage of free float: Equivalent to 3.68%.
• Absolute short positions: HK$254.924 million.
• Price change: Increased by 1.0% from HK$5.8 to HK$5.86.
• Market Cap: HK$15,714 million.
• 2018E PER: 5.88.
• 2019E PER: 4.18.
• PER: 1.27.
• 2018E Dividend yield: 5.68%.
• Short positions / 3-month average daily turnover: 3.80.
• Conclusion: Shows a significant decline in short positions, indicating reduced selling pressure.

Data Source and Limitations

• Data Source: The HKSC releases aggregate short positions data every Friday with a one-week delay, while the HKEx provides daily short-selling activity data.
• Limitations: The HKSC data does not cover short-selling activity through OTC derivative products, which may affect the completeness of the analysis.

Three Angles of Analysis

1. Net Change in Short Positions:

   • Used to identify stocks with increasing or decreasing short positions.
   • Hua Hong Semiconductor showed a 22.9% increase, while China Aoyuan showed a 26.8% decrease.

2. Short Positions as a Percentage of Free Float:

   • Measures the proportion of short positions relative to the total number of shares available for trading.
   • Hua Hong Semiconductor had 3.22%, and China Aoyuan had 3.68%.

3. Absolute Amount of Short Positions:

   • Indicates the total value of short positions.
   • Hua Hong Semiconductor had HK$272.429 million, and China Aoyuan had HK$254.924 million.

Conclusion

The analysis highlights Hua Hong Semiconductor as a stock that requires close monitoring due to the significant increase in short positions. Conversely, China Aoyuan experienced a notable decline in short positions, suggesting a reduction in bearish sentiment. The data is based on objective metrics and does not imply any judgment on corporate governance or fundamentals. Investors should consider these metrics alongside other financial indicators for a comprehensive assessment.