20181203-中国银河国际证券-Strategy_6页_589kb

Short Selling Analysis for November 23

Core Content Overview

This document presents an analysis of short-selling activity in Hong Kong stocks based on data released by the Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company (HKSC). The analysis focuses on three key criteria: the net change in short positions between November 16 and November 23, short positions as a percentage of free float, and the absolute amount of short positions. The purpose is to identify companies that may be vulnerable to short-selling pressure, with an emphasis on BG Blue Sky (6828.HK) and Sinolink Holdings (1168.HK), while also noting a significant decline in short positions for Chongsing Holdings (8207.HK).

Key Companies and Trends

Companies with Increased Short Positions

• BG Blue Sky (6828.HK):

  • Short positions increased by 17.2%.
  • Outstanding short positions accounted for 1.77% of its free float.
  • The 5-day moving average short-selling amount rose to HK$938,278 from HK$866,085 on November 23.
  • Price dropped by 3.9% from HK$0.255 to HK$0.245.
  • Market cap: HK$24,724 million.
  • 2018E PER: n.a..
  • 2019E PER: n.a..
  • PBR: 0.64.
  • 2018E Dividend yield: n.a..
  • 3-month average daily turnover: 0.52.

• Sinolink Holdings (1168.HK):

  • Short positions increased by 18.5%.
  • Outstanding short positions accounted for 1.60% of its free float.
  • The 5-day moving average short-selling amount rose to HK$673,764 from HK$618,380 on November 23.
  • Price dropped by 3.8% from HK$0.52 to HK$0.5.
  • Market cap: HK$1,771 million.
  • 2018E PER: n.a..
  • 2019E PER: n.a..
  • PBR: 0.21.
  • 2018E Dividend yield: n.a..
  • 3-month average daily turnover: 11.11.

• Country Garden (2007.HK):

  • Short positions increased by 5.99%.
  • Outstanding short positions accounted for 1.77% of its free float.
  • The 5-day moving average short-selling amount rose to HK$4,405,320,952 from HK$4,405,320,952 on November 23.
  • Price increased by 6.7% from HK$9.02 to HK$9.62.
  • Market cap: HK$208,225 million.
  • 2018E PER: 5.32.
  • 2019E PER: 4.15.
  • PBR: 1.77.
  • 2018E Dividend yield: 6.44.
  • 3-month average daily turnover: 9.39.

• China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd (670.HK):

  • Short positions increased by 3.04%.
  • Outstanding short positions accounted for 4.88% of its free float.
  • The 5-day moving average short-selling amount rose to HK$196,654,357 from HK$196,654,357 on November 23.
  • Price increased by 0.2% from HK$4.85 to HK$4.86.
  • Market cap: HK$80,637 million.
  • 2018E PER: 14.29.
  • 2019E PER: 10.01.
  • PBR: 1.08.
  • 2018E Dividend yield: 0.76.
  • 3-month average daily turnover: 3.71.

Companies with Decreased Short Positions

• Chongsing Holdings (8207.HK):
  • Short positions decreased by 21.1%.
  • Outstanding short positions accounted for 4.88% of its free float.
  • The 5-day moving average short-selling amount dropped to HK$879,342 from HK$948,535 on November 23.
  • Price decreased by 43.3% from HK$0.4 to HK$0.227.
  • Market cap: HK$5,253 million.
  • 2018E PER: 10.08.
  • 2019E PER: 6.72.
  • PBR: 0.78.
  • 2018E Dividend yield: n.a..
  • 3-month average daily turnover: 12.35.

Analysis Methodology

The analysis is based on three criteria:

1. Net change in short positions: This measures the weekly change in short positions, highlighting companies that are experiencing an increase or decrease in short-selling activity.
2. Short positions as a percentage of free float: This indicates the relative size of short positions in relation to the company's total float, providing insight into the level of short-selling pressure.
3. Absolute amount of short positions: This provides the total value of short positions, offering a measure of the overall short-selling activity.

The data is sourced from the HKSC, Bloomberg, and CGIS Research, and it is important to note that the data provided by the HKSFC has a one-week delay. The HKEx releases data daily but does not specify whether the short positions are covered, which may limit its usefulness for real-time analysis.

Limitations

• The data does not cover short-selling activity through over-the-counter (OTC) derivative products, which could affect the completeness of the analysis.
• The analysis is purely quantitative and does not reflect any judgment on corporate governance or fundamentals of the companies.

Conclusion

The analysis highlights that BG Blue Sky and Sinolink Holdings have seen a significant increase in short positions, suggesting potential vulnerability to short-selling pressure. Conversely, Chongsing Holdings has experienced a notable decline in short positions, indicating a reduction in short-selling activity. Investors are advised to monitor these companies closely due to the potential impact of short-selling on their stock prices.