战略与国际研究中心-Transnational-Threats-Update-May-2009_6页_255kb

TRANSNATIONAL THREATS UPDATE Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of transnational threats facing the United States and other regions in May 2009, highlighting issues related to terrorism, border security, drug trafficking, and piracy. It emphasizes the need for improved intelligence collaboration and transnational cooperation to address these challenges.

Main Points

Terrorism

• Bolivian Terrorism Investigation:

  • A plot to assassinate President Evo Morales was uncovered, implicating a neo-Nazi group called the Szekler Legion.
  • The group included foreign nationals like Michael Dwyer (Irish) and Arpad Magyarosi (Hungarian), who had ties to private security firms.
  • Opposition figures in Santa Cruz, including Governor Ruben Costas and activist Branko Marinkovic, were accused of supporting the group.
  • The investigation has become a political issue in Bolivia and may influence the 2009 elections.
  • Ireland's police are also investigating Hungarian and Romanian migrants suspected of neo-Nazi activities.

• Jundullah Threat in Pakistan:

  • Jundullah, an anti-Iranian group, is accused of escalating attacks, including a suicide bombing in Iran.
  • Iranian officials claim Pakistan failed to dismantle the group, leading to tensions between the two countries.
  • The oil pipeline agreement between Iran and Pakistan is at risk due to these accusations.

• Al Qaeda Cell in Europe:

  • Italian police arrested two French nationals linked to an al Qaeda cell planning attacks in France and the UK.
  • The suspects were initially arrested for human trafficking but later linked to terrorist activities.
  • The case highlights the need for improved transnational cooperation in counterterrorism efforts.

• Egyptian Confession and Al Qaeda Allegations:

  • A confession from a terrorist cell member in Egypt implicated the group in an al Qaeda-affiliated attack.
  • The group also planned domestic attacks, including strikes on the Sinai Peninsula.
  • Egyptian media condemned the "quadruple axis of evil" including al Qaeda, Palestinian groups, Hezbollah, and Iran.
  • Some observers doubt the government's claims, suggesting the attack may have been carried out by local jihadist cells.

• Hezbollah Admits Role in Gaza:

  • Hezbollah confirmed its support for Hamas in the Palestinian territories, marking its first public admission of involvement outside Lebanon.
  • This admission may be a strategic move ahead of the Lebanese parliamentary elections.
  • The organization has historically limited its activities to attacks on Israel from Lebanon.

Border Security

• U.S.-Canadian Border Monitoring:

  • The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is increasing surveillance along the Canadian border, citing concerns over terrorist activity.
  • The surveillance includes video monitoring and Predator B aircraft patrols.
  • Canadian officials argue the threat is overstated.
  • The U.S. also intensifies efforts on the Mexican border, partly to maintain parity with its counterdrug operations.

• U.S.-Mexico Border Corruption:

  • A former Texas sheriff pleaded guilty to a narcotics conspiracy, indicating a growing problem of corruption among U.S. border officials.
  • Mexican cartels, particularly the Zetas, are suspected of using sophisticated methods to recruit and target U.S. officials.
  • The U.S. has established six Border Corruption Task Forces to address the issue, but results remain mixed.

Drug Trafficking

• Venezuela's Drug Trade Surge:

  • Drug trafficking in Venezuela has increased by 900% since Hugo Chávez took power, making it the most violent country in Latin America.
  • The country is now the leading transit point for cocaine entering Europe.
  • Police and judiciary in Venezuela are described as corrupt and ineffective, with a conviction rate of only 3% for homicide cases.
  • The rise in violence is attributed to both drug-related and petty criminal activities, exacerbated by political instability and economic decline.

• Guatemala's Drug-Related Chaos:

  • Guatemala has been a key player in the drug trade for decades, with a high volume of cocaine passing through the country.
  • The murder of Salvadorian officials and subsequent deaths of police officers in custody reflect the country's lawlessness.
  • Political corruption is widespread, with many politicians funding campaigns through drug money and ignoring illicit activity.
  • The country's murder rate is 50 per 100,000, and only 2% of crimes are solved.

Piracy

• Canadian-Kenyan Cooperation on Piracy:
  • Both countries are leading efforts to create a new court system in Kenya for prosecuting Somali pirates.
  • The increase in pirate attacks near the Gulf of Aden has raised calls for a more effective international antipiracy regime.
  • Current practices of prosecuting pirates in the country of capture or releasing them back to Somalia have proven ineffective.
  • The proposed system aims to streamline procedures and ensure consistent legal action across international patrols.

Key Information

• Globalization and Intelligence:

  • The U.S. Intelligence Community must adapt to new transnational threats through better internal collaboration and external engagement with experts.

• Transnational Cooperation:

  • The document underscores the importance of international collaboration in counterterrorism, drug trafficking, and piracy.
  • Examples include EU efforts to curb air transport for illicit activities and the proposed Kenyan piracy courts.

• Political and Legal Implications:

  • Accusations of state-sponsored terrorism and corruption have significant political consequences, particularly in regions like Latin America and the Middle East.
  • The role of private security firms in recruiting extremists is a growing concern.

Conclusion

This update highlights the complex and interconnected nature of transnational threats, emphasizing the need for coordinated international efforts to counter terrorism, drug trafficking, and piracy. It also underscores the challenges of maintaining effective border security and the impact of political instability and corruption on regional security.