战略与国际研究中心-Transnational-Threats-Update-February-2009_6页_138kb

Transnational Threats Update Summary (February 2009)

Core Content

This document provides an overview of transnational security threats facing the United States and other countries in February 2009, focusing on terrorism, organized crime, cyber threats, human trafficking, and regional security issues.

Main Points and Key Information

Terrorism

• Al Qaeda in Yemen (AQY):

  • AQY released a video interview with Nasir al-Wuhayshi, who became the leader of the newly unified al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
  • The Saudi branch of al Qaeda pledged allegiance to AQY, indicating its weakening and AQY's growing strength.
  • The video suggests AQY may use Yemen as a base for attacks in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula.
  • The capture of Mohammed al-Awafi, a Saudi who appeared in the video, raises questions about the authenticity of the pledge and the intelligence value of his arrest.

• Hezbollah in Latin America:

  • Hezbollah is expanding in Latin America, supported by Iran, and is suspected of recruiting and financing drug operations.
  • A Hezbollah drug-trafficking ring was uncovered in Colombia in October 2008, funneling money to Europe and Lebanon.
  • In December 2006, nine Hezbollah operatives were arrested in the tri-border area of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay.
  • Despite claims by some officials that the threat is overstated, Hezbollah is believed to be active in several Latin American countries.

• Homegrown Terror in the U.S.:

  • Concerns have grown about U.S. citizens being radicalized and sent abroad, with some returning to commit attacks.
  • Shirwa Ahmed, a Somali-American, became the first U.S. citizen to carry out a suicide bombing in October 2008.
  • The FBI and DHS have investigated threats from al Shabaab, including a plot targeting Washington during Obama's inauguration.

• Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Global Jihad:

  • LeT has distanced itself from global jihad, claiming to focus only on the Kashmir issue.
  • However, its ties to al Qaeda remain a concern.
  • The group has been linked to numerous attacks in India, including the 2008 Mumbai attacks.

• Al Qaeda Threats to Germany:

  • A German citizen, Bekkay Harrach (Abu Talha al-Alamani), released a video threatening Germany and calling for a suicide bombing.
  • The video was linked to al Qaeda's "Department of Foreign Operations" and included a reference to Germany's "unlimited solidarity" in the Afghan war.
  • This was the first al Qaeda video in German and the third German-language video from Islamic terror groups since October 2008.

• British Terrorists as a Threat to the U.S.:

  • The CIA warned that British-born Islamic extremists are the greatest threat to U.S. homeland security.
  • British Pakistani community members are seen as potential intermediaries for al Qaeda to launch attacks in North America.
  • Increased U.S. surveillance in Britain is part of efforts to prevent attacks through the visa waiver program.

Organized Crime

• Italian Counterfeiting Ring:
  • A major counterfeit euro operation was dismantled in late January, involving 94 arrests and €1.23 million in fake currency.
  • The ring was discovered during a drug trafficking investigation and was linked to the illegal drug trade.
  • Counterfeiting has been a significant issue in Europe, with Italy, Belgium, and others being major hubs.

Cyber Threats

• Cyber Attacks on Kyrgyzstan:
  • Kyrgyzstan faced a series of DDoS attacks on its internet infrastructure from January 18 to February 1, disrupting communications and the U.S. air base at Manas.
  • The attacks were traced to Russian IP addresses and are believed to be part of a campaign to pressure Kyrgyzstan to close the U.S. base.
  • Similar attacks have targeted Estonia, Ukraine, and Georgia during geopolitical tensions with Russia.

Human Trafficking

• Rohingya Migrants in Bangladesh:
  • Over 200,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled Myanmar to Bangladesh, facing poverty and forced migration.
  • Traffickers often exploit Rohingya migrants, selling them to fish traders in Malaysia and extorting money from their families.
  • The practice of "bwan" (throwing away) is reported in Malaysia, where migrants are beaten and held hostage for ransom.

Regional Security Threats

• Rwandan Rebels in the DRC:

  • Thousands of Rwandan soldiers were deployed in the DRC to combat Hutu rebels, particularly the FDLR.
  • The FDLR, formed by Hutu génocidaires, has killed over 100 civilians since the operation began.
  • The UN fears that the withdrawal of Rwandan forces may lead to increased violence and displacement.

• Drug Violence in Mexico:

  • Drug-related violence has spread to traditionally safe tourist areas like Cancun and Acapulco.
  • The murder of Brigadier General Mauro Enrique Tello by the Gulf Cartel highlighted the danger to local authorities.
  • A grenade attack on a police station in Zihuatanjo led to a police strike, showing the impact of drug violence on public safety.

Conclusion

The document outlines a range of transnational threats, emphasizing the evolving nature of global terrorism, the role of organized crime and cyber warfare, and the humanitarian crises associated with human trafficking. It highlights the need for enhanced intelligence collaboration and vigilance, especially in the face of growing domestic and regional threats.