战略与国际研究中心-Transnational-Threats-Update-January-2009_6页_136kb

TRANSNATIONAL THREATS UPDATE Summary

Core Content

This update provides an overview of various transnational security threats, including terrorism, drug trafficking, regional conflicts, and money laundering. It highlights developments in different regions and the evolving strategies of terrorist and criminal organizations.

Main Points and Key Information

Terrorism

• Hamas Declares Victory After Gaza Assault

  • Hamas proclaimed victory after the Israeli military withdrew from Gaza, despite significant casualties and damage.
  • Israeli officials claim the operation was a success, targeting terrorist infrastructure.
  • Despite the claims, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza persists, and Hamas faces internal and external challenges, including conflict with Fatah and potential Israeli retaliation.
  • Israeli jets targeted smuggling tunnels near Rafah in response to a roadside bombing.

• Sri Lankan Army Captures LTTE Strongholds

  • The Sri Lankan military has captured key LTTE bases, including Killinochchi and Elephant Pass, leaving only Mullaitivu under rebel control.
  • Experts warn that the LTTE may continue a guerrilla war despite losing its last stronghold.
  • The Sri Lankan government remains confident in its ability to defeat the LTTE.

• New Group Emerges in Lebanon

  • The Arab Islamic Resistance, an anti-Hezbollah group, is said to be formed and has trained 3,000 members.
  • The group claims to have advanced weapons and is ready to attack Israel.
  • Experts doubt the group's capability to carry out actual attacks, suggesting it may be a political move ahead of elections.

• Suicide Bombing in Iran

  • Jundallah, an Iranian Sunni group suspected of links to al Qaeda, carried out its first suicide attack in December 2008.
  • The attack targeted a police station in Saravan, killing four security personnel and injuring twelve.
  • The group claims the attack was retaliation for the destruction of a Sunni religious school.
  • The Iranian government accuses the U.S., Britain, and Saudi Arabia of using Jundallah as a proxy to destabilize the regime.

• Al Qaeda Affiliate Tests Biological Weapons?

  • Reports suggest AQIM may have conducted a botched biological weapons experiment in Algeria, resulting in 40 deaths from the bubonic plague.
  • U.S. intelligence officials are skeptical, suggesting the deaths may be due to natural causes.
  • If AQIM has indeed tested biological weapons, it could be a limited-scale threat, as the methods of transmission are unlikely to cause mass casualties.
  • Al Qaeda has been researching biological weapons since the late 1990s, but access to such weapons remains uncertain.

Drug Trafficking

• Smuggling in Southeastern Iran Increases in 2008
  • Sistan-Baluchestan province, bordering Afghanistan and Pakistan, has seen a significant rise in drug seizures.
  • Over 340 tons of narcotics were seized in the past 10 months, a 20% increase from 2007.
  • The region also saw an increase in illegal arms and fuel trafficking.
  • The Iranian government plans to build walls and install surveillance systems to counter smuggling, aiming to reduce it by 50-60%.
  • The current penalty of death is not seen as an effective deterrent.

Regional Security Threats

• United Wa State Army to Clash with the Government?

  • The UWSA, an armed group in Myanmar, is suspected of preparing for a conflict with the government.
  • The group has been manufacturing small arms, including AK-47-like rifles, for both self-defense and profit.
  • The UWSA and UWSP are pushing for an autonomous Wa region, which may be a test of the government's commitment to the new constitution.
  • The Burmese government's acceptance of the autonomous region could influence the UWSA's decision to disband.

• Trouble in the Niger Delta Region

  • MEND, an armed group in Nigeria, declared a unilateral cease-fire in September 2008 but is now threatening to resume attacks.
  • The group is accused of using criminal tactics, including oil theft and kidnapping, to fight for a fairer distribution of oil wealth.
  • The recent killing of Boy Chike (Tubotamuno Angola) has prompted MEND to threaten violence against Nigerian military installations.
  • Nigeria's Joint Task Force dismisses MEND's threats as empty, but the government's failure to rescue British hostages has raised concerns.

Money Laundering

• Terrorists Online Launder Money

  • Terrorist groups are increasingly using online gambling sites to launder money and fund their operations.
  • The "Online University of Jihad" is a platform for recruitment and training, reducing the need for physical travel.
  • Terrorists recruit individuals with clean records through online platforms, who then use these funds to launder money through gambling accounts.
  • A special encryption program, Mujahidden Secrets 2, is used to obscure communications, making detection difficult.
  • MI5 has trained specialists to monitor gambling sites for suspicious activity.

• World Banks Launder Money for Iran

  • Ten international banks, including Lloyds TSB, are accused of helping Iran evade sanctions.
  • Funds were allegedly used to support terrorist groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
  • Lloyds TSB settled for $350 million, with half going to the U.S. government.
  • The nine other banks are still under investigation, and their records have been submitted.

Conclusion

This update underscores the complex and evolving nature of transnational threats, highlighting the challenges faced by governments in combating terrorism, drug trafficking, and money laundering. The use of the Internet by terrorist groups for fundraising and recruitment, the rise of new militant organizations, and the persistence of regional conflicts all point to the need for enhanced international cooperation and intelligence-sharing to address these global security issues.