战略与国际研究中心-Transnational-Threats-Update-November-2003_6页_303kb

Transnational Threats Update Summary (November 2003)

Core Content

This document is a monthly update from the Transnational Threats Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), focusing on global security challenges such as terrorism, drug trafficking, organized crime, money laundering, and bioterrorism. It highlights the evolving nature of transnational threats and the international efforts to counter them.

Main Topics and Key Information

Terrorism

• Horn of Africa: Somalia has become a key hub for Al Qaeda, serving as a training base, weapons market, and hideout. The 2002 Mombasa attacks were linked to a cell that operated from Somalia.
• Israel's Response: El Al, Israel's national airline, installed an experimental anti-missile system on some planes following threats of missile attacks.
• Islamic Jihad: Commander Obeidi was captured in Jenin, linked to suicide attacks in Haifa and Jerusalem. He worked with Hamas, which provided explosives and funding.
• Real IRA and French Separatists: A joint operation between France and Ireland arrested seven suspects, including two from the Real IRA, suspected of ties to Breton separatists and ETA. The Real IRA is linked to the 1998 Omagh bombing.
• Jemaah Islamiyah: Azahari bin Husin and Noordin Mohammed Top, key figures in the Al Qaeda-linked group, are on the run and were involved in the 2002 Bali bombings.

Taliban and Afghanistan

• Opium Crisis: Afghanistan is the world's largest opium producer, with opium cultivation spreading to 28 of its 32 provinces. The UN warns of the link between opium trade, corruption, and terrorism.
• Taliban's Return: The Taliban regime, which previously banned opium cultivation, has re-established the drug trade. The UN's 2003 report highlights the risk of the drug trade fueling terrorism.
• U.S. Efforts: The U.S. is intensifying efforts to find Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda leaders in Afghanistan, especially in border regions with Pakistan. However, the U.S. has given lower priority to Afghanistan compared to Iraq.

Al Qaeda

• Istanbul Attacks: Al Qaeda is suspected of involvement in the November 15 suicide bombings of synagogues in Istanbul. Turkish intelligence failed to act on warnings, and Al Qaeda claimed responsibility.
• Financial Weaknesses: A leaked UN study indicates that efforts to cut off Al Qaeda financing are flawed due to inadequate cooperation, legislative loopholes, and lack of political will. Al Qaeda financiers are still active in Italy and Switzerland.

Homeland Security

• Translation Center: The U.S. is launching a National Virtual Translation Center to address the shortage of linguists and handle intelligence data in foreign languages. The center will focus on Arabic, Persian, and Bahasa Indonesian.

Terror Finance

• UN Report: The U.S. and other countries are struggling to control terrorist financing. The report criticizes the failure to share information and the continued operation of charities linked to Al Qaeda.
• Myanmar Banks: The U.S. Treasury used the Patriot Act to penalize two Myanmar banks for money laundering, despite their alleged ties to narcotics traffickers rather than terrorists.

Organized Crime

• EU Enlargement: Europol warns of a surge in organized crime in the newly enlarged EU, including drug trafficking, people smuggling, and financial fraud. Albanians and Russian gangs are identified as major players.
• Smuggling Routes: Criminal networks are exploiting porous borders and e-business to operate more freely. Europol recommends harmonizing laws and conducting joint operations.

Uranium Smuggling

• Slovak Nationals Arrested: Two Slovaks were arrested in the Czech Republic with radioactive material, possibly low-grade uranium, which could be used in a dirty bomb. Al Qaeda is reported to be interested in such weapons.

Bioterrorism

• CIA Report: Advances in genomic research could lead to the development of more dangerous biological weapons, including antibiotic-resistant agents and stealth viruses. Traditional intelligence methods may be inadequate, and collaboration with scientists is needed.
• Biometric Security: The U.S. and EU should lead in setting global biometric standards, including facial recognition and fingerprints. A dispute exists over U.S. rules requiring foreign airlines to share passenger data, with the EU concerned about privacy and civil liberties.

Conclusion

The document emphasizes the need for international cooperation, technological innovation, and stronger legal frameworks to combat transnational threats. It highlights the growing risks of terrorism, drug trafficking, organized crime, and bioterrorism, and calls for a unified and proactive approach to security.