世界发展银行-The-Short-Run-Economic-Impact-of-Summer-2020-Protests-in-Addis-Ababa---A-Brief-Look-at-the-Evidence-from-a-High-Frequency-Phone-Survey-of-Firms_8页_450kb

Summary of the Short-Run Economic Impact of Summer 2020 Protests in Addis Ababa

Core Content

This document analyzes the economic impact of the violent protests and internet shutdown that occurred in Addis Ababa in June and July 2020, using data from the High-Frequency Phone Survey of Firms (HFPS-F). The survey was originally designed to study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on firms but was interrupted by the protests. The study focuses on the effects of political instability, riots, and internet outages on firm operations, sales, and physical assets.

Main Findings

• Firm Impact Overview:

  • About 49% of firms in Addis Ababa reported being affected by the riots, internet shutdown, or mobile service disruptions.
  • 47% of firms were directly impacted by the unrest, with 95% of those affected in some way.
  • Only 6.5% of firms were mainly affected by the internet shutdown.
  • Less than 1% of firms indicated mobile service shutdown as a problem.
  • About 9% of firms reported physical damage to their properties.

• Sales and Revenue Impact:

  • On average, firms experienced a 29% decline in monthly sales revenue.
  • The industry sector saw a 26% loss, while the service sector reported a 29% loss.
  • Own-account firms and micro-enterprises were more severely impacted, with over a third and a quarter of their sales revenue wiped out, respectively.
  • Larger firms experienced a 19% decline in sales revenue.

• Supply Chain Disruptions:

  • 29% of firms reported significant supply chain disruptions.
  • The industry sector had a 33.9% disruption rate, while the service sector reported 28.3%.
  • Internet shutdown was responsible for 8.5% of supply chain disruptions in the industry and 4.8% in the service sector.

• Sector and Firm Size Differences:

  • Service sector firms were more likely to be affected by the riots and physical damage compared to industry sector firms.
  • Larger firms (SML) were more affected by both property damage and sales revenue loss than smaller firms.

• Firm Age and Ownership:

  • Younger firms, particularly those aged 0–2 years, were more likely to experience both property damage and supply chain disruptions.
  • Male-owned firms were more affected by property damage than female-owned firms, despite the latter predominantly operating in the service sector.
  • The estimated value of physical damage was significantly higher for older firms, especially those with 10 years or more of operational experience.

Key Information

• Data Source: The study is based on self-reported data from a representative sample of 438 firms interviewed immediately after the incidents. The data is collected through the HFPS-F, which tracks firms over time.
• Survey Methodology:
  • The survey was conducted every three weeks between mid-April and mid-September 2020.
  • A total of 8 rounds were completed in Addis Ababa, with 7 in other cities.
  • The final dataset includes approximately 800 firms (500 in Addis Ababa and 300 in other cities).
  • The sampling process involved cleaning the firm list, verifying active phone numbers, and stratifying by firm size and sector.
• Limitations:
  • The results are based on self-reported data and not verified by objective indicators or administrative data.
  • There is a need for caution in interpreting the findings due to potential biases.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Share of firms affected by the instability between June and July 2020.
• Figure 2: Share of firms affected by the riots.
• Figure 3: Share of firms affected by internet disruptions by firm characteristics.
• Figure 4: Share of firms that reported physical damage to their properties.
• Figure 5: Estimated value of physical damage (in thousands ETB).
• Figure 6: Reported monthly sales revenue lost (percent).
• Figure 7: Share of firms reporting supply disruptions (percent).
• Table 1: Share of firms affected by sector, size, age, and sex of the owner.
• Table 2: Reported lost sales and physical damage firms incurred during the unrest.
• Table 3: Percent of firms that report supply chain disruptions.

Conclusion

The summer 2020 protests in Addis Ababa had a significant short-run economic impact on firms, particularly in terms of sales revenue decline, supply chain disruptions, and property damage. Larger and older firms were more vulnerable to these effects, and service sector firms were disproportionately affected. The internet shutdown had a limited impact compared to the riots, though it still disrupted some supply chains. The study highlights the need for further research and data collection to fully understand the long-term implications of such events on the economy.