2015年-世界发展银行全球_The_Socio-Economic_Impacts_of_Ebola_in_Liberia___Results_from_a_High_Frequency_Cell_Phone_Survey_17页_1mb

Summary of the Socio-Economic Impacts of Ebola in Liberia (Round 4, February 2015)

Core Content

The High Frequency Cell Phone Survey conducted by the World Bank Group, in collaboration with the Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services (LISGIS) and Gallup Organization, aimed to monitor the socio-economic impacts of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) on households in Liberia. The survey was carried out in four rounds between October 2014 and January 2015, and Round 4 data was collected from January 19–27, 2015.

Key Findings

EVD Situation

• As of February 18, 2015, Liberia had reported over 9,000 cases and 3,900 deaths.
• The number of confirmed cases had decreased significantly, from 92 in the 21 days ending December 31, 2014, to 20 in the 21 days ending January 28, 2015.
• Most of the current cases are being managed in Ebola Treatment Units (ETUs), with some units beginning to close due to reduced need.
• Montserrado County (including Monrovia) was the only area reporting new cases in the three weeks leading up to February 2, 2015.
• The curfew was lifted on February 22, and markets reopened. However, health checkpoints remained in place.

Employment

• A substantial return to work occurred, with the percentage of household heads not working decreasing from 48% in December 2014 to 41% in January 2015.
• Wage employment in urban areas saw the most improvement, followed by non-farm self-employment and agricultural employment in rural areas.
• Self-employment remains the most affected sector, with less than half of non-agricultural self-employed individuals returning to work.
• Working capital and lack of customers were the main reasons for not working or not reopening businesses.
• Many respondents noted that their businesses are not operating at pre-crisis levels, indicating ongoing economic challenges.

Agriculture

• Agricultural households reported a slight improvement in their harvest expectations, with 65% believing their harvest would be smaller than the previous year (down from 80% in December).
• Three-quarters of agricultural households had completed their harvest, indicating some recovery in agricultural activity.
• Labor shortages and inability to work in groups continue to be significant challenges.
• Traditional labor gangs saw a statistically significant decline, from 31% in the previous season to 26% in the current season, due to fear of infection.
• Cash crops like rubber remain a concern, with only 50% of rubber farmers able to harvest since the crisis began. Cocoa showed more optimism, with 90% of cocoa farmers able to harvest.
• Reduced market functioning and transportation costs are also impacting the sale of cash crops, with FEWS NET reporting a 20% decline in sales.

Prices

• Rice prices declined by ~5% from Round 3 to Round 4, but remained 35% above the January 2014 baseline.
• Regional price differentials persist, with Monrovia having the lowest prices and Maryland, River Gee, River Cess, Grand Gedeh, and Nimba counties having the highest.
• These price disparities are linked to market functioning issues and transportation costs, as noted by FEWS NET.

Food Insecurity

• Food insecurity remains widespread, with ~75% of households worried about not having enough to eat in the previous week.
• Urban areas saw a statistically significant decrease in food insecurity, while rural areas showed small increases.
• Lack of money continues to be the main constraint for meeting food needs, with ~88% of households citing insufficient funds in Round 4.
• Coping strategies such as selling assets, borrowing money, and reducing meal portions remain prevalent, with ~85% of households using at least one strategy.

Health and Education

• Health care utilization for common ailments like childhood diarrhea has not declined significantly, though private and religious providers have become more popular.
• Education recovery is underway, with ~90% of households with school-age children being informed about the reopening of schools.
• Schools reopened in February, and the next round of the survey will include more detailed questions on education.

Security

• Perceived community safety has improved, with ~80% of respondents feeling as safe or safer than before the crisis.
• Household safety regarding property also improved, with ~70% feeling safer.
• Montserrado County had the highest incidence of those feeling less safe, but overall, the county residents felt safer than the national average.

Conclusion

The fourth round of the survey indicates progress in controlling the EVD outbreak, with a decline in confirmed cases and some return to economic activity. However, long-term socio-economic impacts remain significant, particularly in the self-employment sector and agriculture. Food insecurity and economic coping strategies are still widespread, and prices remain high, especially in rural and remote areas. As Liberia moves toward recovery, support for vulnerable populations and improvements in employment and market functioning will be crucial to ensure economic stability and household welfare.

Main Concerns

• Continued high levels of food insecurity, especially in rural areas.
• Persistent economic challenges, including labor shortages, reduced market functioning, and high prices.
• Vulnerability of self-employed individuals and agricultural households due to capital constraints and lack of customers.
• Potential long-term impacts of economic coping strategies on future productivity and welfare.
• Need for targeted interventions to support economic recovery and social protection.

Methodology

• The survey is based on the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) and is conducted via cell phone.
• Low response rates affect the representativeness of the data.
• Weighting is applied to compare estimates across rounds using the baseline population.

Quotes

• "We are operating but not like before. We need to get back like it was." – 38-year-old man in Margibi county.
• "I don't have money to buy the rice, for the Ebola crisis the schools are closed until February 2nd but now the schools will reopen. After the schools closed they did not pay us our money, they stopped paying until now that we are speaking." – Private school teacher in Maryland county.

Figure Highlights

• Figure 1: Decline in confirmed EVD cases over time.
• Figure 2: Impact of EVD by sector and location.
• Figure 3: Price index for rice over time.
• Figure 4: Food insecurity across rounds.
• Figure 5: Economic coping strategies usage over time.

Notes

• The survey data is limited in scope and sample size, especially in rural areas.
• Further research and support are needed to address the medium- and long-term impacts of the crisis on households and the economy.