世界发展银行-Monitoring-COVID-19-Impacts-on-Firms-in-Ethiopia-_-Results-from-a-High-Frequency-Phone-Survey-of-Firms_7页_305kb

Summary of Results from a High-Frequency Phone Survey of Firms in Ethiopia

Core Content

This document presents the findings from the first round of the High-Frequency Phone Survey of Firms (HFPS-F) conducted in Ethiopia between April 15 and May 5, 2020. The survey was implemented by the World Bank in collaboration with the Ethiopian government to monitor the economic and social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on formal firms in Addis Ababa and four other cities: Adama, Bahir Dar, Hawassa, and Mekelle. The survey aimed to provide timely data to inform policy responses and assess the effectiveness of interventions.

Main Findings

Impact on Firm Operations

• Over 42% of firms in Addis Ababa completely ceased operations during the reference period (April 1 to May 4, 2020).
• 37% of firms reported no revenue in the last completed month (March or April 2020).
• The construction sector appears relatively less affected compared to other sectors.

Employment and Labor Impact

• Few firms reported layoffs, likely due to the State of Emergency directive which prohibited layoffs and encouraged paid leave.
• 52% of large firms and 24% of micro-firms granted paid leave to their workers in the two weeks preceding the survey.
• Firms expect to shed 14% of their payroll in the next two weeks and 20% in the next three months.

Revenue and Profit Decline

• 88% of firms expect this fiscal year’s profits to be lower or much lower than last year.
• Median revenue in the last completed month was ETB 2,000, equivalent to the average monthly wage in Addis Ababa in 2018.
• 89% of firms had lower revenues in the last completed month compared to the same period in the previous year.
• 37% of firms in Addis Ababa reported zero revenue in the last completed month, with micro-firms being most affected.

Sector and Size Differences

• Services sector dominates firm operations in Addis Ababa, accounting for 85% of all firms.
• Wholesale and retail trade accounts for 43%, transportation and storage for 17%, and tourism and hospitality for 14%.
• Industry firms are larger than services firms, with the median number of employees being 3 in industry and 1 in services.
• SML firms (6+ employees) are more likely to remain operational and generate revenue than micro-firms or own-account firms.

Policy Response and Support

• The most relevant policy measures identified by firms include tax waivers, operational cost coverage, and loan restructuring or debt relief.
• 39% of firms called for tax waivers, 20% for covering operational costs, and 14% for loan support.
• Wage subsidies were mentioned by only 5% of firms, but 14% of large firms indicated they were more interested in such measures.
• Very few firms (12 in the sample) received government support so far.

Operational Adjustments

• Firms have implemented measures to enhance employee health and safety, such as:
  • Providing hand sanitizers to 70% of firms.
  • Distributing personal protective equipment to 42%.
  • Establishing social distancing requirements in 35% of firms.

Investment and Future Outlook

• 37% of industry firms and 26% of services firms reported canceling or postponing new investments in fixed assets.
• 47.5% of SML firms decided to cancel or postpone planned investments.
• The slowdown in investment may have negative implications for job creation in the coming months.

Key Information

Sampling and Methodology

• The survey sampled 645 firms in Addis Ababa and additional samples in four other cities.
• The sampling strategy was stratified by firm size and sector and involved cleaning and validating phone numbers from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MoTI).
• The final dataset will include approximately 800 firms (500 in Addis Ababa and 300 in other cities).

Data Collection Parameters

• Data collection period: April 15 to May 5, 2020.
• Response rate: 46%.
• Average interview duration: 21 minutes.

Firm Characteristics

• Most firms are young and small, with 13% being new, 30% between 1 and 2 years, and 19% between 3 and 4 years.
• Only 16% of firms are 10 years or older.
• 6% of firms in Addis Ababa earn part of their revenue from exports, with manufacturing firms more likely to export than services firms.

Conclusion

The first round of the HFPS-F highlights the severe economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on formal firms in Ethiopia, particularly in Addis Ababa. While demand collapse is the most significant challenge, policy support such as tax waivers and loan restructuring is seen as crucial for firm survival. The employment impact has been minimal so far, with most firms opting for paid leave over layoffs. The survey provides a baseline for monitoring the evolving situation and informs targeted policy interventions. Future rounds will continue to track changes in firm operations, revenues, and employment across multiple cities.