2015年-世界发展银行全球_The_Socio-Economic_Impacts_of_Ebola_in_Liberia___Results_from_a_High_Frequency_Cell_Phone_Survey_Round_5_19页_1mb

Summary of the Socio-Economic Impacts of Ebola in Liberia (Round 5)

Core Content

This document summarizes the findings from the Round 5 of a high-frequency cell phone survey conducted by the World Bank Group, LISGIS, and Gallup Organization in Liberia to assess the socio-economic impacts of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic. The survey took place between March 12–18, 2015, and the report reflects the country's progress in containing the disease and the ongoing recovery efforts.

Key Findings

Epidemiological Situation

• As of April 8, 2015, Liberia had reported over 9,860 cases and 4,400 deaths.
• By early April, only one confirmed case had been reported in the 21 days prior, indicating progress toward zero cases.
• Ebola Treatment Units have started to close as the health situation improves.
• Schools reopened in February 2015, though many institutions delayed reopening until March 2, 2015.
• International borders were reopened, but there were reports of restrictions in Guinea and limited air links.

Employment Trends

• 40% of household heads reported not working in Round 5, a slight decrease from 41% in Round 4.
• Wage employment and rural self-employment are showing recovery, though agricultural work remains lower due to seasonal lulls.
• Women are disproportionately affected by job losses, as they were more likely to be in non-agricultural self-employment.
• Few workers have switched sectors, suggesting limited economic diversification in response to the crisis.
• 90% of those who were working in wage employment at the baseline were still working or not working at all in Round 5.

Food Insecurity

• Food insecurity remains high, with just under 75% of households reporting concern about having enough to eat in the previous week.
• Rural areas saw a significant improvement, likely due to the completion of the rice harvest.
• Urban areas, particularly Monrovia, continued to report higher levels of food insecurity.
• Lack of money is the primary reason cited for food insecurity, not high prices or unavailability.
• Coping strategies (e.g., selling assets, delaying investments) have decreased, indicating a gradual return to normal economic behavior.

Agricultural Impact

• Most agricultural households reported a smaller 2014 harvest than the previous year.
• Harvest size is not directly linked to EVD outbreaks, but to seasonal factors.
• Agricultural outreach is limited, with only 25% of agricultural households receiving visits from extension agents.
• Cash crops such as rubber and cocoa have been impacted by both transportation restrictions and declining international prices.
• Coffee production has also been affected, with only 35% of farmers harvesting at least some coffee in Round 5.

Prices and Market Access

• Imported rice prices remain 40% above normal.
• Montserrado county had the lowest rice prices, likely due to lower transportation costs and larger markets.
• Price differentials persist across counties, but food aid is unlikely to be the cause.

Education Recovery

• 80% of households with primary school-aged children reported that children were attending school.
• School attendance for older children declined slightly, with 73% returning to school.
• Lack of money is the most common reason for non-attendance, with only 14% citing fear of infection.
• Schools in Monrovia and other areas show similar attendance rates.

Health Services

• Use of public health services has increased, with more households returning to government providers.
• Diarrhea incidence in children under five rose slightly to 17% in Round 5, compared to 10% in the 2014 baseline.
• Treatment rates remain around 54%, with a preference for government facilities over private ones.

Methodology and Next Steps

• The survey is based on a nationally representative sample from the 2014 HIES.
• Low response rates limit the survey's representativeness.
• The World Bank Group will shift focus to in-person household surveys starting in July 2015, to better capture long-term recovery and welfare impacts.
• This shift aims to improve data accuracy and highlight the effects of EVD on households, as well as prepare for future crises.

Conclusion

Liberia is showing signs of economic recovery following the EVD crisis, with improvements in employment, food security, and health service utilization. However, living standards remain below pre-crisis levels, particularly for women and rural households. The survey highlights the need for broader agricultural support and economic interventions to address ongoing challenges and promote sustainable recovery.