CEPS欧洲政策研究中心-The-future-of-gas-in-Europe-_8211-CEPS_33页_1014kb

Summary of the Future of Gas in Europe

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive review of recent studies on the future of the gas industry in the European Union (EU), focusing on the period up to 2050. It highlights the evolving role of gas in a low-carbon economy, the impact of policy and technological developments, and the implications for gas demand, infrastructure, and market dynamics.

Main Findings

Part 1: Demand for Gas in 2030

• Natural Gas Demand: Projections suggest that natural gas demand will remain stable or slightly decrease by 2030.
• Flexibility Role: Natural gas can provide flexibility for variable renewable energy sources (VREs) due to its large-scale storage capabilities, though the extent of this role remains uncertain.
• Coal Phase-out: Switching to natural gas-fired power plants can serve as a short- and medium-term solution for countries phasing out coal or nuclear power.
• Infrastructure Considerations: Investments in natural gas infrastructure must consider the long lifetime of such projects to avoid stranded assets.
• Environmental Impact: While natural gas reduces CO₂ emissions and air pollutants compared to coal, methane leakage must be mitigated to ensure genuine decarbonisation benefits.

Part 2: The Role of 'Gas' in 2040-2050

• Diverse Projections: Gas demand projections for 2040-2050 vary significantly across scenarios, with most indicating a continuous decline in consumption.
• GHG Reduction Targets: The level of GHG reduction targets strongly influences the expected demand for natural gas and the adoption of low- and zero-carbon gaseous fuels.
• Decarbonisation Pathways: Scenarios targeting at least an 80% GHG reduction show a significant decline in natural gas use, while those aiming for 95-100% reduction project a near-complete phase-out of unabated natural gas.
• Hydrogen and Renewable Gas: Biogas and biomethane are the most commercially ready alternatives to natural gas, but their production is constrained by feedstock availability. Hydrogen, particularly blue hydrogen (from natural gas with carbon capture and storage, CCS), is expected to play a key role, though its carbon neutrality is questionable.
• CCS Development: The large-scale deployment of CCS is critical for the future of blue hydrogen, but current progress is limited, especially in power and heating sectors.
• Cost and Availability Factors: Hydrogen production costs and availability of renewable electricity are major factors influencing its viability. The cost of carbon also plays a role in determining the competitiveness of low-carbon fuels.
• Synthetic Methane: The production of synthetic methane through Power-to-Methane is limited by the availability of green hydrogen and CO₂ storage, making it less competitive than biomethane and hydrogen.

Part 3: End-Uses and Implications for Gas Networks

• Sector-Specific Applications: The end-use of gaseous fuels in 2050 will largely depend on their market penetration in power, buildings, industry, and transport sectors.
• Power Sector: Hydrogen, biogas, and biomethane can help manage surplus renewable electricity and provide seasonal storage. Combined cycle gas turbines using biomethane may serve as peak capacity solutions.
• Buildings Sector: Heat pumps are expected to dominate new buildings, but hydrogen and biomethane may be used in existing heating systems. Hybrid solutions combining electricity and gas could offer competitive alternatives.
• Industrial Sector: Energy efficiency measures and structural changes in industry will reduce overall energy demand. Hydrogen and biomethane may be necessary for high-temperature processes and as feedstock in some industries.
• Transport Sector: Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will dominate light-duty transport, while hydrogen and renewable methane will be used in heavy transport and aviation. These fuels will compete with other alternatives such as biofuels and e-liquids.
• Network Adaptation: Gas networks will need to be adapted to accommodate different gaseous fuels, including hydrogen and renewable methane, based on local conditions. This poses new challenges for distribution system operators (DSOs) and transmission system operators (TSOs).
• Decentralisation Challenges: EU policymakers will face the challenge of managing a more decentralised gas distribution system as the energy mix evolves.

Key Policy Questions

• What are the long-term implications of a short and medium-term switch to natural gas and the subsequent investments in infrastructure and gas-fired power generation?
• Can methane leakage be realistically accounted for and controlled in order to safeguard the greenhouse gas emissions benefits expected from switching to natural gas?
• How does natural gas compare to other flexibility options such as demand response, battery storage, grid reinforcement, and market rule adjustments?
• Which assumptions in scenario designs are most realistic for achieving GHG emissions reduction targets by 2050?
• What level of CCS deployment can be realistically expected?
• What is the potential for renewable gas and hydrogen production by 2050 and at what cost?
• What role will blue hydrogen play in a fully decarbonised EU economy by 2050?
• How much renewable electricity will be available for green hydrogen production and at what cost?
• Will methane and hydrogen compete for the same markets in 2050? In what sectors will each be most relevant?
• What are the implications of future end-uses of gaseous fuels for transmission and distribution strategies?

Key Information

• The EU has committed to a 40% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 and aims for 80-95% reduction by 2050.
• Natural gas is projected to remain a key player in the energy mix up to 2030 but will decline significantly by 2050.
• The role of gas in the energy system will shift towards low- and zero-carbon alternatives, such as biogas, biomethane, hydrogen, and synthetic methane.
• Methane leakage is a critical issue that could undermine the emissions benefits of gas use, especially in the context of decarbonisation.
• The development of hydrogen infrastructure is likely to be driven by blue hydrogen in the short to medium term, but green hydrogen is expected to be more sustainable in the long term.
• The transition to a low-carbon gas industry will require significant changes in infrastructure, policy, and market dynamics.