2012年-世界发展银行全球_Climate_Change_Policies_and_Employment_in_Eastern_Europe_and_Central_Asia_54页_1mb

Climate Change Policies and Employment in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Core Content

This paper explores the impact of climate change policies on employment in Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA). It focuses on two main dimensions: vulnerability to energy price changes and adaptability to these changes. The study uses principal component analysis to identify and compare these characteristics across ECA countries, aiming to inform policymakers on how to mitigate the negative employment effects of carbon regulation.

Main Points

1. Nature of Climate Regulation Shock

• Climate change policies, particularly those involving carbon pricing, create a shock similar to an increase in energy prices.
• These shocks can lead to reduced production in energy-intensive industries, which in turn may cause employment losses.
• Labor market frictions may exacerbate these effects, as workers may not be able to transition quickly to other sectors.

2. Vulnerability of ECA Countries

• Vulnerability is determined by the share of employment and value added in energy-intensive sectors, combined with the expected energy price increase after regulation.
• ECA countries are more vulnerable to energy price shocks than Western European countries, except for Norway, an oil producer.
• Some countries, such as Ukraine, Russia, and Armenia, face significant energy price adjustments due to their reliance on fossil fuel-based energy production.
• In contrast, South Caucasus countries like Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia have the lowest dependency on energy-intensive employment.

3. Adaptability of ECA Countries

• Adaptability refers to a country's ability to transition labor and production from energy-intensive to cleaner sectors.
• Five key dimensions of adaptability are identified:
  • Labor market flexibility
  • Quality and availability of skills, training systems, and innovation capacity
  • Active labor market policies and programs
  • Readiness of social protection systems to support displaced workers
  • Economic policies supporting green growth
• Many of these factors are difficult to quantify, especially for the entire ECA region.

Key Findings

• Energy-intensive industries account for a significant portion of employment and value added in ECA, with around 30% of employment and 40% of value added in these sectors.
• The EU20-20-20 goal requires a 20% reduction in emissions, 20% increase in energy efficiency, and 20% use of renewable energy by 2020, which will necessitate higher energy prices.
• Principal component analysis reveals that ECA countries vary widely in their vulnerability and adaptability to energy price changes.
• Three groups of countries emerge based on their vulnerability:
  • Highly vulnerable: Large oil producers such as Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, and Azerbaijan.
  • Moderately vulnerable: Countries like Ukraine, expecting the second-highest energy price increase.
  • Less vulnerable: Countries such as Latvia, Lithuania, and Hungary, where energy prices are already higher than the social price used in the analysis.

Policy Implications

• Incentives for new firms and job creation should be established to support the transition to low-carbon sectors.
• Workers need retraining and support to adapt to new job markets.
• Social safety nets must be strengthened to assist displaced workers and ensure a smoother transition.
• Green growth policies are essential to support the shift from energy-intensive to cleaner industries.

Limitations

• The paper does not attempt to quantify the employment impact of energy price increases, but rather focuses on relative vulnerability and adaptability.
• It acknowledges that positive employment effects may arise from the development of new industries and jobs in response to climate policies.
• The study is based on unweighted averages and does not account for all the complexities of individual country responses.

Conclusion

The paper provides a conceptual and empirical framework to assess the employment impact of climate change policies in ECA. It highlights the need for targeted policy interventions to support workers and firms during the transition to a low-carbon economy, especially in countries with high vulnerability and limited adaptability. The findings suggest that while the potential negative effects of energy price shocks on employment are manageable, proactive measures are necessary to ensure a smooth and equitable transition.