20230324-招银国际-Vocational_training___AIGC_as_LT_driver_8页_942kb

报告摘要

Zhihu (ZH US) Company Update Summary

Core Content Overview

Zhihu, a leading knowledge-sharing platform in China, reported stronger-than-expected financial results for 4Q22, with revenue growth of +9.3% YoY, surpassing both consensus and CMBIGM estimates. The company's performance was driven by resilient membership growth, strong vocational training revenue, and a mild recovery in advertising and content-commerce solutions (CCS).

Despite macroeconomic challenges and a resurgence of the epidemic, Zhihu's 4Q22 results exceeded expectations, with a non-GAAP net loss narrowing sequentially and a gross margin (GPM) that was 6ppts above the consensus. Paid membership revenue surged 93% YoY, attributed to the platform's enhanced content and improved algorithms. The company also introduced a new app, Yanyan <盐言故事>, aimed at improving user experience.

Key Financial Highlights

Revenue Growth (YoY):
- FY21A: 116.5%
- FY22A: 23.1%
- FY23E: 27.8%
- FY24E: 23.1%
- FY25E: 17.1%
Adj. Net Profit:
- FY21A: (735)
- FY22A: (1,196)
- FY23E: (942)
- FY24E: (129)
- FY25E: 222
Adj. EPS (RMB):
- FY21A: (1.29)
- FY22A: (1.95)
- FY23E: (1.54)
- FY24E: (0.21)
- FY25E: 0.36
P/S Ratio:
- FY21A: 1.7
- FY22A: 1.5
- FY23E: 1.2
- FY24E: 1.0
- FY25E: 0.8
Target Price (TP): US$2.3 (unchanged from previous TP)
Current Price: US$1.2
12-Month Price Performance: Not provided
Market Cap (US$ mn): 761
Avg 3-Month Turnover (US$ mn): 7.92
52-Week High/Low (US$): 3.33 / 0.89
Total Issued Shares (mn): 602

Main Points

4Q22 Performance

Revenue increased by 9.3% YoY, beating consensus and CMBIGM estimates by 4% and 6% respectively.
Content-commerce solutions (CCS) revenue declined by 19% YoY, while advertising revenue fell by 27% YoY, but both were above CMBIGM's estimates.
Paid membership revenue rose by 96% YoY, driven by a growing number of paying users.
Non-GAAP net loss narrowed to RMB134mn, significantly below the consensus of RMB243mn.
Gross margin reached 56.4%, 6ppts above the consensus.

FY23E Outlook

Revenue is expected to grow by +54% in the membership segment and +140% in vocational training, contributing to a reacceleration in revenue growth.
Vocational training is projected to reach 10% of total revenue in FY23E, with long-term potential for more than 20% contribution.
Zhihu is expected to achieve a quarterly breakeven in FY24E, despite AIGC investment, as margin improvement continues.

Advertising Recovery

Advertising revenue is expected to decline by 15% YoY in 1Q23E due to lingering macro headwinds.
However, the recovery is anticipated to begin in 2Q23E, especially in e-commerce and FMCG sectors, with ads contributing more in FY23E.

Margin Improvement

Adj. net margin is forecasted to improve by 13ppts YoY in FY23E, driven by higher GPM and disciplined sales and marketing (S&M) expenses.
Zhihu is investing strategically in AIGC, but R&D costs are expected to remain manageable.

Key Information

Vocational Training

Vocational training revenue surged 281% YoY in 4Q22, showing strong growth.
The platform is expanding its course offerings and product matrix to further enhance this segment.
Zhihu's vocational training is expected to grow by 140% in 1Q23E and 81% in FY23E, reflecting its potential as a long-term (LT) driver.

Membership Growth

Paid membership growth is robust, with 96% YoY increase in 4Q22.
Membership momentum is expected to continue, with a forecast of +54% in FY23E.
Enhanced community engagement and content are key drivers of this growth.

Strategic Initiatives

The launch of the Yanyan <盐言故事> app is expected to improve user experience and engagement.
Zhihu is leveraging its "knowledge-inspiring" community for AIGC initiatives, which are expected to enhance ecosystem value and monetization.

Valuation and Investment Outlook

Zhihu is currently trading at 1.2x FY23E P/S, which is below the industry average of 2.5x.
CMBIGM maintains a "BUY" rating with a target price of US$2.3, implying a 2.1x P/S ratio.
The valuation is considered attractive, given the platform's high-quality content, potential for higher revenue CAGR (20% for FY23-25E), and strong LT drivers like vocational training and AIGC.

Analysts and Contact Information

Sophie Huang: (852) 3900 0889, sophiehuang@cmbi.com.hk
Eason Xu: (852) 3900 0849, easonxu@cmbi.com.hk

Supporting Information

DCF Valuation: Equity Value is estimated at RMB9,767 million, with a target price of US$2.3.
Industry Comparison: Zhihu's P/S ratio is below the industry average, indicating undervaluation.
Valuation Comps: The company is compared with peers in the online community, VAS, and ad sectors, showing potential for re-rating.

Summary of Key Ratios

Sales Mix:
- CCS: 24.0% (FY23E)
- Advertising: 20.9% (FY23E)
- Paid Membership: 41.1% (FY23E)
- Vocational Training: 9.8% (FY23E)
- Others: 4.2% (FY23E)
Margins:
- Gross Margin: 56.4% (4Q22)
- Operating Margin: -19.4% (4Q22)
- Adj. Net Margin: -12.0% (4Q22)
Returns:
- ROE: (10.9)% (FY21A)
- ROA: (8.3)% (FY21A)
- ROE: (2.8)% (FY24E)
- ROA: (1.5)% (FY24E)
EPS (RMB):
- FY21A: (1.3)
- FY22A: (1.95)
- FY23E: (1.54)
- FY24E: (0.21)
- FY25E: 0.36