DDP-深度脱碳的政策教训-在大型新兴经济体（英）-2021.11-86页_2mb

Summary of Policy Lessons on Deep Decarbonization in Large Emerging Economies

Core Content

This report, coordinated by the Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDP) Initiative, presents an analysis of deep decarbonization scenarios for Brazil, India, Indonesia, and South Africa. It highlights the feasibility of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 through a combination of technological, economic, and policy measures, emphasizing the need for strategic and inclusive policy design to ensure sustainable development and poverty eradication.

Main Features of the Report

• The report outlines the Deep Decarbonization Scenario (DDS) and Current Policy Scenario (CPS) for Brazil.
• It evaluates the emission profiles, mitigation actions, and macroeconomic/social implications of these scenarios.
• The analysis is grounded in integrated modelling, combining sectoral and macroeconomic models to provide a comprehensive view of decarbonization pathways.

Key Policy Lessons

1. Techno-Economic Feasibility

• Deep decarbonization is achievable through existing technologies and market instruments, often at net negative costs.
• Land use change and forestry (LUC) are the most significant contributors to emission reductions, with 93% lower emissions in DDS compared to CPS by 2050.
• AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use) remains the key sector for emission reductions due to its low cost per avoided emission.

2. Carbon Pricing as a Key Tool

• Carbon pricing is essential to drive emissions reductions in sectors like industry, transport, and energy supply.
• The carbon price is expected to grow linearly, reaching 25 USD/tCO₂eq in 2030 and 65 USD/tCO₂eq in 2050.
• Carbon pricing revenues are recycled back into the economy, particularly to reduce labor charges and support low-income households, thus improving employment and income distribution.

3. Role of Policy and Institutional Design

• Command and control policies combined with environmental regulations can achieve up to 59% of total emission reductions.
• Stakeholder engagement is crucial for the development of scenarios and policy insights, ensuring that the whole-of-society approach is embedded in the decision-making process.

4. Macro-Economic and Social Impacts

• The DDS scenario leads to slightly better economic and social outcomes than CPS, including higher GDP, lower unemployment, and higher disposable income for the poorest households.
• Carbon pricing leads to higher domestic price levels, which can deteriorate terms of trade and affect trade balance.
• The recycling of carbon revenues is a socially progressive mechanism, especially for low-income households and labor-intensive sectors.

5. Need for International Cooperation

• The report underscores that some critical conditions are outside national control, such as global trade dynamics and technological advancements.
• International cooperation is necessary to address these and to support domestic transitions.

Key Insights from Brazil's Scenario

• Brazil's NDC targets a 37% GHG reduction by 2025 and 43% by 2030, compared to 2005.
• The DDS scenario aims for carbon neutrality by 2050, achieving 1.0 GtCO₂eq in 2030 and 17 MtCO₂eq in 2050.
• The CPS scenario, with no increase in ambition, results in 1.65 GtCO₂eq in 2030 and 1.889 GtCO₂eq in 2050.
• Land use and forestry is the most effective mitigation sector, with 76% more carbon removals in DDS than CPS by 2050.
• Transport and industry also contribute significantly, with 53% and 31% emission reductions, respectively.

Sectoral Deep Dives

• AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use) is central to Brazil’s decarbonization strategy.
• Native vegetation restoration in both public and private areas has lower costs and high abatement potential, especially in public areas due to better cost-effectiveness.
• Modal shift and electromobility are identified as key transport strategies.
• Biofuels and energy efficiency in industry are also cost-effective mitigation actions.

Conclusion

The report concludes that while techno-economic feasibility is achievable, political economy and policy design are the main barriers to effective decarbonization. A strategic, inclusive, and cooperative approach is necessary to accelerate the transition and ensure social and economic equity. The DDS is shown to be more ambitious and more cost-effective than the CPS, offering a viable pathway to carbon neutrality in Brazil and other large emerging economies.