那提西银行-全球-经济理论-当前收益曲线变平的三个主要原因-20180517-7页_908kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

The document discusses the current flattening of yield curves, attributing it to three main factors: the absence of inflation, the decline in term premia, and the abundance of global liquidity. It provides an analysis of long-term interest rates and their relationship with economic indicators and central bank policies.

Main Reasons for Yield Curve Flattening

1. Absence of Inflation

   • Despite falling unemployment rates, unit labour costs have not grown strongly, leading to low core inflation across most regions.
   • The United Kingdom is an exception due to its currency depreciation.
   • Low inflation expectations contribute to the downward pressure on long-term interest rates.

2. Decline in Term Premia

   • Term premia are the extra returns investors demand for holding long-term bonds.
   • Central banks have reduced the variability of long-term interest rates through interventions in bond markets and forward guidance.
   • As a result, term premia have fallen, lowering long-term interest rates.

3. Abundance of Global Liquidity

   • Central banks have been increasing liquidity, particularly through the accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves.
   • This liquidity is largely directed towards purchasing bonds denominated in major reserve currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY).
   • The increased bond purchases push down long-term interest rates.

Low Long-Term Interest Rates

• Long-term interest rates are at historically low levels globally (Charts 1A–D).
• These rates are lower than what would be expected based on the outlook for monetary policy and nominal GDP growth (Charts 2A–D).
• In the United States, the 10-year Treasury yield is compared to nominal GDP growth.
• In the Euro zone, the 10-year government bond yield is similarly analyzed.
• The United Kingdom and Japan also show a similar trend in their respective bond yields and GDP growth.

Conclusion

• The low level of long-term interest rates is not surprising when considering the three key factors: low inflation, reduced term premia, and increased global liquidity.
• These factors collectively explain the current state of yield curves and the overall trend in long-term interest rates.

Disclaimer

• The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
• It is strictly confidential and cannot be disclosed to third parties without prior written consent from Natixis.
• It does not constitute a personalized investment recommendation or a financial analysis.
• No liability is accepted for the distribution, possession, or delivery of the document in certain jurisdictions.
• The views expressed are the personal opinions of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Natixis or its affiliates.
• The document is based on public information and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation for any transaction.
• All information is provided for general informational purposes only and is not updated after the initial date.
• The document is subject to the regulatory oversight of various authorities, including the European Central Bank, ACPR, AMF, FCA, and others, depending on the jurisdiction.

Regulatory Information

• Europe: Supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), authorized by ACPR in France, and regulated by AMF.
• United Kingdom: Authorized and regulated by the FCA and the Prudential Regulation Authority.
• Germany: Authorized by ACPR and subject to limited regulation by BaFin.
• Spain: Authorized by ACPR and regulated by Bank of Spain and CNMV.
• Italy: Authorized by ACPR and regulated by Bank of Italy and CONSOB.
• Dubai: Authorized by ACPR and regulated by DFSA.
• Other Jurisdictions: Subject to local regulations and requirements.