那提西银行-全球-经济理论-资本流向新兴国家的原因何在？-20180517-5页_595kb

Flash Economics Summary: What Explains Capital Flows to Emerging Countries?

Core Content

This document analyzes the factors that drive capital flows to emerging countries, focusing on two primary explanations: the search for higher yields due to low interest rates in OECD countries and a favorable economic situation in emerging countries. It presents historical data and statistical correlations to evaluate these factors.

Main Viewpoints

1. Yield Spread and Capital Flows

• Capital flows to emerging countries are not strongly correlated with yield spreads that favor these countries.
• Charts 1A and 1B illustrate the trend of non-resident capital flows into emerging markets in equities and bonds.
• Charts 2A and 2B, along with Table 1, show that the yield spread between emerging countries and OECD countries (including the U.S.) has no positive correlation with capital inflows.
• The correlation coefficient between yield spread and capital flows is -0.17, suggesting a weak or inverse relationship.

2. Economic Situation and Capital Flows

• The economic health of emerging countries is assessed using the Composite PMI and trade balance.
• Charts 3A and 3B, and Table 2, reveal a positive correlation between the Composite PMI and capital inflows.
• The correlation coefficient is 0.22, indicating that improving production prospects in emerging countries are linked to increased capital flows.
• The trade balance shows a very weak negative correlation (-0.02), suggesting it is not a strong driver of capital inflows.

Key Information

• Capital flows to emerging countries have occurred in two major periods: 2009–2012 and since mid-2016.
• The study excludes China due to its unique position in terms of capital flows and financial market integration.
• The conclusion suggests that capital flows to emerging countries are more likely driven by favorable economic conditions rather than yields alone.
• The document emphasizes that the observed correlations are based on public data and Natixis calculations, without independent verification or analysis.

Conclusion

• Capital flows to emerging countries are not primarily due to a default choice (seeking higher yields in a low-interest rate environment).
• Instead, they appear to be influenced by a positive choice (improving economic outlook, as reflected by the Composite PMI).
• The report highlights the importance of economic fundamentals over yield differentials in explaining capital inflows.

Disclaimer

• The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
• It is strictly confidential and cannot be disclosed to third parties without consent.
• No personalized investment recommendations are made, and the information is for general distribution only.
• The views expressed are the personal opinions of the authors and may vary.
• No liability is accepted for any use of the document or its contents.
• The document is not a financial analysis and is not subject to legal requirements promoting independent investment research.
• The regulatory status of Natixis and its subsidiaries is outlined, with supervision in various jurisdictions including the European Central Bank (ECB), ACPR (France), FCA and Prudential Regulation Authority (UK), and BaFin (Germany).

Regulatory Information

• Natixis is supervised and regulated in multiple countries, including France, the UK, Germany, Spain, and Italy.
• In the UAE, Natixis operates under the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and is subject to limited regulation.
• The document is available only to Professional Clients in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC).

Final Note

• The report does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation.
• All views are subject to change without notice.
• The information is not updated after the document's initial date and should not be relied upon for future decisions.