20160913-大华银行-FX_Insights_12页_1mb
报告摘要
FX Insights Summary (13 September 2016)
Core Content Overview
This document provides a detailed analysis of the foreign exchange (FX) market as of 13 September 2016, focusing on key currency pairs and their short-term and medium-term outlooks. It includes insights on market movements, central bank events, and technical levels for various currencies against the Singapore Dollar (SGD).
Main Points and Key Information
Market Movement Overview
- The USD experienced a strong rally in the past few days but is currently in a consolidation phase.
- The USD/SGD pair closed at 1.3560, with a neutral outlook and expected to trade sideways within a 1.3435/1.3645 range.
- The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1240, showing a neutral outlook and likely to trade between 1.1150 and 1.1330.
- The GBP/USD pair closed at 1.3335, also showing a neutral outlook and expected to trade between 1.3200 and 1.3450.
- The AUD/USD pair closed at 0.7560, with a neutral outlook and likely to trade between 0.7535 and 0.7600.
- The NZD/USD pair closed at 0.7340, expected to trade within a 0.7250/0.7415 range.
- The USD/JPY pair closed at 101.80, showing a neutral outlook and likely to trade between 100.80 and 103.20.
Key Central Bank Events
- Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Bank of England (BOE) are set to release monetary policy decisions on 15 September.
- The BOE is expected to stay on pause in September, with a rate cut likely in November.
- The August MPC guidance from the BOE suggests that further easing may occur later in the year.
- The RBA and BNM are also expected to maintain their current policies for the near term.
Technical Levels and Outlooks
| Currency Pair | Spot | Outlook | Target | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/SGD | 1.3560 | Neutral | - | 1.3525/1.3435 | 1.3600/1.3645 |
| EUR/SGD | 1.5235 | Neutral | - | 1.5200/1.5135 | 1.5285/1.5335 |
| GBP/SGD | 1.8080 | Neutral | - | 1.8020/1.7880 | 1.8120/1.8180 |
| AUD/SGD | 1.0245 | Neutral | - | 1.0200 | 1.0225/1.0285 |
| JPY/SGD | 1.3320 | Neutral | 1.3400 | 1.3290/1.3230 | 1.3370/1.3400 |
| USD/MYR | 4.0900 | Neutral | 4.1310 | 4.0700 | 4.0895 |
| USD/THB | 34.85 | Bullish | 35.00 | 34.72 | 34.92/35.00 |
| USD/CNH | 6.6890 | Neutral | - | 6.6700/6.6600 | 6.6900/6.7050 |
| CNH/SGD | 0.2028 | Neutral | - | 0.2020/0.2024 | 0.2037/0.2040 |
Short-Term Outlook (24-Hour View)
- USD/SGD: A short-term top is in place, with a likely decline but not expected to go below 1.3525/30. Resistance at 1.3600 and 1.3645.
- EUR/SGD: A short-term top is in place, with a likely decline but not expected to go below 1.5200/1.5135. Resistance at 1.5285 and 1.5335.
- GBP/SGD: A short-term top is in place, with a likely consolidation. Expected to trade between 1.8020 and 1.8120.
- AUD/SGD: A short-term bottom is in place, with a likely consolidation. Expected to trade between 1.0225 and 1.0285.
- JPY/SGD: A short-term top is in place, with a likely consolidation. Expected to trade between 1.3290 and 1.3360.
- USD/MYR: A strong open suggests an upside risk, with a target at 4.1310.
- USD/THB: A clear break above 34.85 indicates a bullish phase, with a target at 35.00.
- USD/CNH: A rebound is expected, but a clear break above 6.7050 is unlikely.
- CNH/SGD: Expected to trade within a broad 0.2020/0.2040 range.
Medium-Term Outlook (1-3 Weeks)
- USD/SGD: Neutral, likely to trade between 1.3435 and 1.3645.
- EUR/SGD: Neutral, likely to trade between 1.5135 and 1.5335.
- GBP/SGD: Neutral, likely to trade between 1.7880 and 1.8180.
- AUD/SGD: Neutral, bearish only if daily closing below 1.0200.
- JPY/SGD: Neutral, with room for a rebound to 1.3400.
- USD/MYR: Neutral, likely to shift to bullish if daily closing above 4.0895.
- USD/THB: Bullish, with an immediate target at 35.00.
- USD/CNH: Neutral, likely to trade between 6.6750 and 6.7050.
- CNH/SGD: Neutral, expected to trade between 0.2020 and 0.2040.
- EUR/USD: Neutral, likely to trade between 1.1150 and 1.1330.
- GBP/USD: Neutral, likely to trade between 1.3200 and 1.3450.
- AUD/USD: Neutral, pull-back could extend to 0.7460.
- NZD/USD: Neutral, pull-back could extend to 0.7250, with resistance at 0.7380.
- USD/JPY: Neutral, likely to trade between 100.80 and 103.20.
FX & Interest Rate Outlook (Quarterly)
| Currency Pair | 3Q16 | 4Q16 | 1Q17 | 2Q17 | Rates Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.09 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 0.00% |
| GBP/USD | 1.28 | 1.24 | 1.20 | 1.16 | 0.25% |
| AUD/USD | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.78 | 0.80 | 1.50% |
| NZD/USD | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1.75% |
| USD/JPY | 105 | 106 | 109 | 110 | -0.20% |
| USD/SGD | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.41 | 1.42 | 0.90% |
| USD/MYR | 4.15 | 4.15 | 4.10 | 4.08 | 3.00% |
| USD/THB | 36.0 | 36.5 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 1.50% |
| USD/CNY | 6.70 | 6.60 | 6.59 | 6.62 | 4.10% |
| USD/IDR | 13,200 | 13,200 | 13,300 | 13,400 | 5.00% |
| USD/PHP | 47.0 | 46.0 | 45.0 | 43.0 | 3.00% |
| USD/INR | 70.0 | 71.1 | 72.2 | 71.1 | 6.50% |
| USD/TWD | 32.7 | 32.4 | 32.1 | 31.8 | 1.38% |
| USD/HKD | 7.80 | 7.80 | 7.80 | 7.80 | 0.75% |
| USD/US** | - | - | - | - | 0.50% |
Note: The outlook for USD is expected to remain neutral in the short to medium term, with a bullish scenario for USD/THB.
Central Bank Meetings in 2016
- Federal Reserve (FOMC): Meetings on 21 September and 2 November.
- European Central Bank (ECB): Meetings on 8 September and 20 October.
- Bank of England (BOE): Meetings on 15 September and 2 November.
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Meetings on 22 September.
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): Meetings on 22 September.
- Bank of Japan (BOJ): Meetings on 21 September.
- Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM): Meetings on 7 September.
- Bank of Thailand (BOT): Meetings on 14 September.
- Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS): Meetings on TBA.
Disclaimer
- This analysis is based on public information and is subject to change.
- UOB Group does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the data.
- Readers should assess the risks and merits of any transaction independently.
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