20170518-大华银行-FX_Insights_12页_1mb

报告摘要

FX Insights Summary (18 May 2017)

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of the foreign exchange (FX) market on 18 May 2017, focusing on key currency pairs and their short-term and medium-term outlooks. The report is issued by UOB Group's Global Economics & Markets Research and includes insights on market sentiment, support and resistance levels, and central bank meetings.

Main Currency Pairs and Outlooks

USD/SGD

Spot: 1.3915
Outlook: Bearish
Target: 1.3820
Support: S1: 1.3845, S2: 1.3820
Resistance: R1: 1.3960, R2: 1.3985
24-Hour View: USD is under strong downward pressure, with a possible extension towards 1.3820. A rebound should not exceed 1.3985.
1-3 Weeks View: Shift from neutral to bearish, with a target at 1.3820. Strong support at 1.3845.

EUR/SGD

Spot: 1.5520
Outlook: Bullish
Target: 1.5550
Support: S1: 1.5485, S2: 1.5455
Resistance: R1: 1.5550, R2: 1.5600
24-Hour View: EUR extended its up-move, with a potential test of 1.5550.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a target at 1.5550. Stop-loss adjusted to 1.5455.

GBP/SGD

Spot: 1.8035
Outlook: Neutral
Target: -
Support: S1: 1.7950, S2: 1.7950
Resistance: R1: 1.8130, R2: 1.8130
24-Hour View: GBP showed a robust rebound, indicating a consolidation phase.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, expected to trade sideways between 1.7950 and 1.8130.

AUD/SGD

Spot: 1.0340
Outlook: Neutral
Target: -
Support: S1: 1.0290, S2: 1.0315
Resistance: R1: 1.0400, R2: 1.0400
24-Hour View: AUD rebounded from a low, with room for further extension to 1.0370.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, expected to trade within a 1.0290/1.0400 range.

JPY/SGD

Spot: 1.2520
Outlook: Bullish
Target: 1.2600
Support: S1: 1.2450, S2: 1.2480
Resistance: R1: 1.2580, R2: 1.2600
24-Hour View: JPY surged unexpectedly, with potential for further gains to 1.2600.
1-3 Weeks View: Shift to bullish, with room for extension to 1.2600. A move back below 1.2450 may signal a temporary top.

USD/MYR

Spot: 4.3255
Outlook: Bearish
Target: 4.2750
Support: S1: 4.3100, S2: 4.2750
Resistance: R1: 4.3360, R2: 4.3400
24-Hour View: Diminished odds of extension to 4.2750.
1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, with a target at 4.2750. Confirmation of a short-term low is upon a move above 4.3400.

USD/THB

Spot: 34.48
Outlook: Bearish
Target: 34.25/30
Support: S1: 34.42, S2: 34.25
Resistance: R1: 34.55, R2: 34.60
24-Hour View: Anticipating a break below 34.42 for a move to 34.25/30.
1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, with a target at 34.25/30. USD needs to move back above 34.60 to confirm a short-term low.

USD/CNH

Spot: 6.8780
Outlook: Bearish
Target: 6.8600
Support: S1: 6.8680, S2: 6.8600
Resistance: R1: 6.8850, R2: 6.8900
24-Hour View: USD is over-extended but has room for further decline to 6.8600.
1-3 Weeks View: Bearish, with a target at 6.8600. Stop-loss remains at 6.8900.

CNH/SGD

Spot: 0.2024
Outlook: Neutral
Target: -
Support: S1: 0.2020, S2: 0.2015
Resistance: R1: 0.2033, R2: 0.2036
24-Hour View: Pull-back has room to extend lower to 0.2020.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, expected to trade under pressure unless it moves above 0.2036.

EUR/USD

Spot: 1.1155
Outlook: Bullish
Target: 1.1200
Support: S1: 1.1085, S2: 1.1045
Resistance: R1: 1.1200, R2: 1.1250
24-Hour View: EUR hit a high above the previous target, with potential for further gains.
1-3 Weeks View: Bullish, with a target at 1.1200. Stop-loss adjusted to 1.1045.

GBP/USD

Spot: 1.2965
Outlook: Neutral
Target: -
Support: S1: 1.2905, S2: 1.2935
Resistance: R1: 1.3000, R2: 1.3030
24-Hour View: GBP surged to an unexpected high, but the immediate bias remains neutral.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with immediate upward pressure towards 1.3030. Support at 1.2905 remains critical.

AUD/USD

Spot: 0.7430
Outlook: Neutral
Target: -
Support: S1: 0.7380, S2: 0.7410
Resistance: R1: 0.7450, R2: 0.7485
24-Hour View: AUD rebounded from a low, with potential to extend to 0.7485.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, with a target at 0.7485. A clear break above this level would indicate a bullish move.

NZD/USD

Spot: 0.6940
Outlook: Neutral
Target: -
Support: S1: 0.6870, S2: 0.6910
Resistance: R1: 0.7000, R2: 0.7000
24-Hour View: NZD exceeded the target and tested resistance, with potential for further gains.
1-3 Weeks View: Neutral, bullish if NZD closes above 0.6970.

USD/JPY

Spot: 111.10
Outlook: Bearish
Target: 110.10
Support: S1: 110.50, S2: 110.10
Resistance: R1: 111.60, R2: 111.90
24-Hour View: USD dropped sharply, with a potential extension to 110.10.
1-3 Weeks View: Shift to bearish, with a target at 110.10. Confirmation of a short-term low is upon a move above 111.90.

Key Market Drivers

US Dollar Weakness: The USD continued to decline, driven by political turbulence and easing expectations of a June Fed rate hike.
Bond Market Rally: The US bond market saw its largest rally in nearly a year, with the 2-10 year UST yield spread narrowing to 0.95ppt.
Gold Price: Gold continued to rise, reflecting the risk-off sentiment.
EUR Strength: EUR showed strong upward momentum, extending its rally.
GBP Volatility: GBP experienced a mixed outlook, with a rebound from a low suggesting consolidation.
AUD and JPY: Both currencies showed mixed signals, with AUD rebounding and JPY extending its rally unexpectedly.

Central Bank Meetings in 2017

Central Bank	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Federal Reserve (FOMC)	-	01	15*	-	03	14*	26	-	20*	-	01	14*
European Central Bank (ECB)	19	-	09	27	-	08	20	-	07	26	-	14
Bank of England (BOE)	-	02#	16	-	11#	15	-	03#	14	-	02#	14
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)	-	07	07	04	02	06	04	01	05	03	07	05
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)	-	09^	23	-	11^	22	-	10^	28	-	09^	-
Bank of Japan (BOJ)	31**	-	16	27**	-	16	20**	-	21	31**	-	20**
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)	19	-	02	-	12	-	13	-	07	-	09	-
Bank of Thailand (BOT)	-	08	29	-	24	-	05	16	27	-	08	21
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)	-	-	-	13	-	-	-	-	-	tba	-	-

*Meetings associated with a Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference.
#Meetings associated with release of Inflation Report.
^Meetings associated with release of Monetary Policy Statement.
**Meetings associated with release of Outlook Report.

Disclaimer

This analysis is based on publicly available information. UOB Group does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Opinions and predictions are subject to change without notice. UOB Group may have positions in the currencies and financial products mentioned. Readers should determine the economic risks and merits of any transaction independently.

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