20160602-大华银行-FX_Insights_12页_1mb

报告摘要

UOB FX Insights Summary - 02 June 2016

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of foreign exchange (FX) market outlook for various currency pairs as of 02 June 2016, with a focus on short-term and medium-term price movements, key levels, and market sentiment. The analysis includes insights on USD/SGD, EUR/SGD, GBP/SGD, AUD/SGD, JPY/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/THB, USD/CNH, and others. The report also covers broader economic indicators and central bank activities that may influence the FX markets.

Main Points

USD/JPY

Spot Price: 109.30
Outlook: Neutral (shift from bullish to neutral)
24-Hour View:
- The pair experienced a sharp drop below 110.00, leading to a pull-back.
- Short-term downside is expected, with a potential extension to 108.20.
- Resistance at 110.10 and 110.50 remains intact.
1-3 Weeks View:
- A pull-back is expected, with a target at 108.20.
- The pair is likely to remain under pressure unless it reclaims 110.50.

USD/SGD

Spot Price: 1.3775
Outlook: Neutral
24-Hour View:
- The pair attempted to breach 1.3800 but failed.
- Expected to trade sideways, likely between 1.3750 and 1.3805.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Neutral with a range of 1.3720–1.3855.
- A clear break of either level would indicate a directional move.

EUR/SGD

Spot Price: 1.5410
Outlook: Neutral (shift from bearish to neutral)
24-Hour View:
- The pair rebounded strongly, breaking 1.5395.
- Expected to trade between 1.5300 and 1.5510.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Neutral with a range of 1.5300–1.5510.
- A clear break above 1.5450 would indicate further upside.

GBP/SGD

Spot Price: 1.9845
Outlook: Neutral
24-Hour View:
- The pair dropped sharply to 1.9815, breaking 1.9850.
- Expected to trade between 1.9760 and 1.9900.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Neutral with a range of 1.9610–1.9900.
- A clear break below 1.9800 would signal further weakness.

AUD/SGD

Spot Price: 0.9980
Outlook: Neutral
24-Hour View:
- The pair tested 1.0050 but pulled back sharply.
- Expected to trade sideways between 0.9940 and 1.0020.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Neutral with a range of 0.9940–1.0065.
- A sustained move above 1.0065 would be needed to indicate a bullish phase.

JPY/SGD

Spot Price: 1.2590
Outlook: Neutral (shift from bearish to neutral)
24-Hour View:
- The pair surged to 1.2620, testing 1.2660.
- Expected to trade between 1.2550 and 1.2670.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Neutral with a range of 1.2510–1.2670.
- A break above 1.2670 is unlikely, but further gains are possible.

USD/MYR

Spot Price: 4.1500
Outlook: Bullish (shift from neutral to bullish)
24-Hour View:
- The pair broke 4.1500, indicating strong USD strength.
- Expected to extend further to 4.2000, with a trailing stop at 4.0900.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Bullish with a revised target at 4.2000.
- A break below 4.0900 would indicate a short-term top.

USD/THB

Spot Price: 35.67
Outlook: Neutral
24-Hour View:
- The pair remains in consolidation, with a range of 35.55–35.80.
- No significant change in outlook.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Neutral with a range of 35.55–35.80.
- A break above 35.80 is needed to start a fresh bullish phase.

USD/CNH

Spot Price: 6.5870
Outlook: Bullish
24-Hour View:
- The pair tested 6.5992, just below the target of 6.6000.
- Expected to consolidate before another attempt towards 6.6000.
1-3 Weeks View:
- Bullish with a revised target at 6.6000.
- A break below 6.5720 would signal a short-term top.

CNH/SGD

Spot Price: 0.2088
Outlook: Neutral
1-3 Weeks View:
- Expected to trade in a range of 0.2085–0.2095.
- A break below 0.2085 is unlikely, but a move below could indicate further weakness.

Key Events and Outlook

Market Sentiment

The USD is broadly under pressure due to a lack of conviction around the Fed rate hike.
The JPY gained strength due to the delayed sales tax hike and the BoJ's stance on monetary policy.
The GBP remains weak due to Brexit concerns, though the recent drop appears over-extended.

Economic Data

ADP Employment Report: Expected to be a key focus on Thursday.
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index: Will provide insight into US economic conditions.
OPEC Meeting in Doha: Expected to influence oil prices and USD/SGD.

Central Bank Meetings

Federal Reserve (FOMC): Expected to meet on 15 June 2016.
European Central Bank (ECB): Will hold a press conference on 2 July 2016.
Bank of Japan (BOJ): Expected to meet on 16 June 2016.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): Expected to meet on 7 June 2016.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): Expected to meet on 9 June 2016.

Summary of Key FX Pairs

Currency Pair	Outlook	Key Levels (Support/Resistance)	Target	Notes
USD/SGD	Neutral	S1: 1.3745 S2: 1.3720 / R1: 1.3815 R2: 1.3855	-	Range of 1.3705–1.3843
EUR/SGD	Neutral	S1: 1.5350 S2: 1.5300 / R1: 1.5450 R2: 1.5510	-	Broad range of 1.5300–1.5510
GBP/SGD	Neutral	S1: 1.9800 S2: 1.9610 / R1: 1.9900 R2: 2.0000	-	Expected to trade between 1.9760 and 1.9900
AUD/SGD	Neutral	S1: 0.9940 S2: 0.9900 / R1: 1.0020 R2: 1.0065	-	Broad range of 0.9940–1.0065
JPY/SGD	Neutral	S1: 1.2550 S2: 1.2510 / R1: 1.2670 R2: 1.2700	-	Broad range of 1.2510–1.2670
USD/MYR	Bullish	S1: 4.1150 S2: 4.0900 / R1: 4.1800 R2: 4.2000	4.2000	Room for further extension
USD/THB	Neutral	S1: 35.55 S2: 35.56 / R1: 35.77 R2: 35.80	-	Range of 35.55–35.80
USD/CNH	Bullish	S1: 6.5800 S2: 6.5720 / R1: 6.6000 R2: 6.6200	6.6000	Expected to consolidate before testing 6.6000
CNH/SGD	Neutral	S1: 0.2085 S2: 0.2080 / R1: 0.2095 R2: 0.2102	-	Short-term weakness could extend to 0.2085

Conclusion

The FX market outlook for June 2016 is marked by USD weakness, JPY strength, and GBP volatility. Key events like the ADP report, OPEC meeting, and ECB press conference are expected to influence the market. While USD/SGD and USD/MYR show signs of bullish momentum, other pairs like EUR/SGD and GBP/SGD are expected to remain neutral or bearish, depending on further developments in economic data and central bank policies. Overall, the market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase for most pairs, with directional moves dependent on clear breakouts of key support and resistance levels.

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