IMI-2021年人民币国际化报告（新闻稿）（英）-60页_1mb

报告摘要

RMB Internationalization Report 2021 Summary

Core Content

The RMB Internationalization Report 2021 outlines the progress and challenges of the RMB's internationalization in the context of the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the dual circulation development pattern. It highlights how China's economic resilience, financial reforms, and international cooperation have contributed to the growth of the RMB's role in the global economy, despite fierce competition from the USD and EUR.

Main Views

1. RMB Internationalization Index (RII) Progress

The RII increased 54.20% year-on-year to 5.02 by the end of 2020, marking a record high.
The RMB surpassed the JPY and GBP in 2020 and ranked third among major international currencies for three consecutive quarters.
The RII showed a steep climb with fluctuations, indicating both progress and challenges in the internationalization process.

2. Factors Driving RMB Internationalization

China's Economic Resilience: China was the only G20 country with positive GDP growth in 2020, reinforcing its position as a stable and growing economy.
Financial Opening-up: China accelerated financial reforms, including simplifying cross-border RMB procedures, expanding channels for RMB use, and canceling restrictions like QFII and RQFII.
Monetary Policy Stability: The RMB's stable value and predictable monetary policy improved its appeal as an international currency.
International Cooperation: Broader platforms for RMB use, such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and international financial cooperation, deepened RMB's role in global markets.

3. Challenges to RMB Internationalization

Competition from USD and EUR: The USD and EUR remain dominant, with the RMB still struggling to break into the first group of international currencies.
Capital Account Convertibility: Balancing capital account liberalization with risk control remains a key challenge.
Inflow and Outflow Imbalance: The RMB's use in investment and financing is not yet balanced, limiting its global reach.

4. RMB Use in Key Areas

Cross-border Trade Settlement: RMB settlement in trade reached 6.77 trillion yuan, accounting for 18.44% of China's total export-import volume. The share of RMB in global trade settlements rose to 2.91%.
Financial Transactions: The RMB's role in international financial denomination and settlement increased to 9.89%, with direct investment reaching 3.81 trillion yuan, up 37.05% year-on-year.
Global Foreign Exchange Reserves: The RMB's share in global official reserves rose to 2.25%, up 14.80% year-on-year. Its share in Special Drawing Rights (SDR) was 10.83%, showing moderate progress.
Exchange Rate Stability: The RMB exchange rate remained stable, reflecting China's monetary policy and economic strength.

5. Dual Circulation and RMB Internationalization

The dual circulation model (domestic and international cycles) is a strategic layout that supports RMB internationalization.
A strong domestic cycle provides a robust foundation for the real economy and financial market, while a smooth international cycle enhances the profitability and security of RMB assets.
The BRI and offshore RMB markets are key to enhancing the RMB's international presence and financial transaction function.
The BRI helps Chinese enterprises and capital expand globally, while offshore markets facilitate resource allocation and asset management, furthering the network effect of RMB use.

Key Information

The RMB Internationalization Index (RII) was first introduced in 2012 and serves as a quantitative indicator of the RMB's role in international economic activities.
RMB direct investment in 2020 reached 3.81 trillion yuan, showing the highest growth rate in five years.
The RMB's share in global trade settlements increased to 2.91%, and in international financial denomination and settlement to 9.89%.
The RMB's share in global reserves was 2.25%, up 14.80% year-on-year, and 10.83% in SDR.
The dual circulation model is central to high-quality development and RMB internationalization, with the domestic cycle as the mainstay and the international cycle as the extension.
The BRI and offshore markets are seen as strategic tools to promote RMB internationalization and economic cooperation.

Strategic Recommendations

Deepen Financial Reforms: Enhance technological innovation, financial market integration, and capital account liberalization.
Expand Trade and Investment: Promote high-quality trade, services trade, and direct investment.
Strengthen Offshore Markets: Develop a well-balanced offshore RMB market to support international use and increase RMB's appeal.
Promote Regional Integration: Leverage the BRI and Yangtze River Delta to enhance regional economic linkages and RMB usage.
Ensure Risk Control: Maintain stability and security in the financial system as it moves toward greater openness.

Conclusion

The RMB has made significant strides in internationalization, driven by economic resilience, financial reforms, and strategic initiatives. While challenges remain, the dual circulation model and BRI offer viable pathways for the RMB to solidify its position as a major international currency. The report emphasizes that high-quality development and international cooperation are essential to achieving the ultimate goal of RMB internationalization.