那提西银行-全球-经济理论-需求刺激政策能减少潜在增长吗？-20180417-6页_553kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document explores the potential counterproductive effects of demand-stimulus policies on productivity and potential growth in OECD countries. It challenges the common belief that such policies enhance economic potential by stimulating corporate investment, suggesting instead that they may hinder long-term growth through two key mechanisms.

Main Views

• Demand-stimulus policies are typically associated with expansionary monetary and fiscal measures, as evidenced by the low interest rates and fiscal deficits in OECD countries.
• These policies may reduce potential growth by negatively impacting productivity gains.
• The Schumpeterian process, which involves the reallocation of resources from obsolete to innovative firms, is interrupted by demand-stimulus policies.
• A "Dutch disease" effect is observed, where increased demand for goods and services leads to a shift in economic activity towards low-productivity sectors, particularly unsophisticated services.

Key Information

1. Demand-Stimulus Policies in OECD Countries

• Monetary policy is expansionary, as shown by low interest rates and Nominal GDP growth.
• Fiscal policy is also expansionary, reflected in fiscal deficits as a percentage of nominal GDP.

2. Mechanism 1: Interrupting the Schumpeterian Process

• Companies in OECD countries are modernizing, yet productivity gains are not increasing.
• Low interest rates reduce the cost of capital for obsolete companies, preventing their exit.
• Public spending from fiscal deficits also supports these companies.
• These factors reduce company defaults, thereby halting the reallocation of resources to more productive firms.

3. Mechanism 2: Dutch Disease

• Increased demand for goods and services leads to higher incomes, which in turn boost demand for services.
• This results in higher relative prices for services and a reallocation of factors of production towards the service sector.
• In OECD countries:
  • Employment has shifted towards unsophisticated services.
  • The economy has skewed towards services.
  • The overall shift leads to a reduction in productivity gains across the economy.

4. Conclusion

• Demand-stimulus policies may have a counterproductive effect, reducing potential growth rather than stimulating it.
• They do so by:
  • Keeping obsolete firms alive, which stifles innovation and productivity.
  • Skewing the economy towards low-productivity sectors, reducing overall economic efficiency.

Disclaimer and Legal Notes

• The document is intended for professionals and qualified investors only.
• It is strictly confidential and not a personalized investment recommendation.
• No liability is accepted for any use of the information or for any decisions based on it.
• The statements, assumptions, and forecasts are based on public information and may be changed or withdrawn at any time.
• The document does not constitute financial analysis and is not subject to legal requirements for investment research independence.
• Regulatory information is provided for transparency, indicating that Natixis is authorized and regulated in various jurisdictions, including the European Central Bank, ACPR, FCA, and BaFin.

Final Note

• The views expressed in the document are personal and may differ among authors.
• No responsibility is accepted for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.