2004年-世界发展银行全球_Tunisia___Employment_Strategy_Volume_2_Annexes_90页_5mb

Summary of the Republic of Tunisia Employment Strategy (Volume II: Annexes)

Core Content

This document is part of the Republic of Tunisia Employment Strategy, a comprehensive analysis of employment-related issues in Tunisia. It is structured into ten annexes, each addressing a different aspect of labor market dynamics, investment incentives, wage trends, and the impact of globalization and technological change. The report is prepared by the World Bank and includes data from 1995 to 2001, with some projections into the future.

Main Points

1. Investment Incentives and Factor Prices

• The user cost of capital is calculated based on the deflator for investment goods, capital depreciation, and nominal lending interest rates.
• Investment incentives in Tunisia, such as direct subsidies and tax breaks, affect the user cost of capital.
• In 2001, the estimated cost of these incentives was TD 230 million, which represents 8.8% of the gross fixed investment in the domestic private non-financial corporate sector.
• "Capital-biased" incentives accounted for 34% of the total financial and fiscal incentives, while incentives directly targeting employment represented only 2.7%.

2. Productivity Decomposition

• Overall labor productivity growth is influenced by both within-sector and between-sector effects.
• Within-sector effects are due to technological, organizational, and managerial improvements.
• Between-sector effects result from labor reallocation, often from low-productivity sectors like agriculture to higher-productivity sectors like industry and services.
• In the period 1997-2001, productivity gains were exclusively due to within-sector growth, while labor movements across sectors had a negative impact on overall productivity.

3. Wage Trends and Data Sources

• Nominal wages in the non-agricultural sector doubled during the 1990s, with an annual average increase of 7%.
• In real terms, wage growth was 20-25%, or about 2% annually.
• Wage data discrepancies exist between different sources, particularly between the establishment survey and national accounts, with the former suggesting higher average wages.

4. Globalization and Labor Market Impact

• Globalization is associated with higher wages, increased employment opportunities, and economic growth.
• However, it also raises concerns about income distribution, job displacement, and wage inequality.
• Globalization may not be the sole factor driving wage differentials; technological change is considered a more significant contributor.

5. Technological Change and Labor Market Impact

• Technological innovations, especially ICT (Information and Communication Technologies), have transformed production and created new products.
• These changes are linked to skill-biased technological change, which increases the demand for skilled labor and widens wage differentials.
• In developing countries, including Tunisia, technological change appears to be a more critical driver of wage inequality than globalization.

6. Job Creation in OECD Countries

• OECD countries show significant variation in employment outcomes.
• Countries like Ireland and Portugal experienced positive job growth and falling unemployment, while others such as France, Italy, and Finland saw negative or low employment growth and stagnant unemployment.
• High economic growth is a key factor in job creation, and it is positively correlated with output growth.

7. Factors Influencing Employment Outcomes

• Economic growth is a prerequisite for job creation.
• Favorable labor market institutions that encourage labor input over capital accumulation can enhance employment growth.
• Product market liberalization is crucial for job creation, as it fosters firm creation, especially SMEs, and encourages innovation.
• Labor market flexibility is important, but product market regulations also play a significant role in employment outcomes.

Key Information

• Investment incentives in Tunisia are primarily focused on reducing the cost of capital and financing.
• Productivity growth is driven mainly by within-sector improvements rather than labor reallocation.
• Wage growth is significant, but data sources show inconsistencies, particularly between national accounts and establishment surveys.
• Globalization has mixed effects on the labor market, with both job creation and job destruction.
• Technological change, especially ICT adoption, is a major driver of skill-biased wage increases and employment restructuring.
• OECD countries show diverse employment outcomes, with Ireland and Portugal as notable examples of successful job creation and reduced unemployment.
• Policy implications suggest that economic growth, labor market flexibility, and product market liberalization are essential for employment development in Tunisia.

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of investment incentives, productivity improvements, and technological change in shaping the Tunisian labor market. While globalization brings opportunities, it also presents challenges. The analysis underscores the need for policy reforms in both labor and product markets to support sustainable employment growth and economic development.