2011年-世界发展银行全球_Outlook_for_Remittance_Flows_2012-14___Remittance_Flows_to_Developing_Countries_Exceed_350_Billion_in_2011_15页_1mb

Summary of "Outlook for Remittance Flows 2012-14"

Core Content

The World Bank's Migration and Development Brief provides an outlook for global remittance flows to developing countries from 2012 to 2014, based on the recovery observed in 2011. The report highlights both the positive trends and the risks that could affect the sustainability of remittances in the coming years.

Main Points

• Remittance Growth in 2011:
  Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries reached $351 billion in 2011, up 8% from $325 billion in 2010. This growth was higher than the earlier forecast of 7.3%.

• Regional Variations in Growth:

  • Four of the six developing regions experienced higher-than-expected growth in 2011: Europe and Central Asia (11%), South Asia (10.1%), East Asia and Pacific (7.6%), and Sub-Saharan Africa (7.4%).
  • Latin America and the Caribbean and Middle East and North Africa saw lower growth due to the U.S. economic downturn, Spain's unemployment, and the Arab Spring.

• Forecast for 2012-14:
  Remittance flows to developing countries are expected to grow at 7-8% annually and reach $441 billion by 2014. This is significantly lower than the 20% annual growth observed before the global financial crisis.

• Worldwide Remittance Trends:
  Global remittance flows, including to high-income countries, are projected to exceed $593 billion by 2014, up from $483 billion in 2011.

• Top Remittance Recipients:

  • India ($58 billion), China ($57 billion), Mexico ($24 billion), and Philippines ($23 billion) are the largest recipients in nominal terms.
  • Small and low-income countries such as Tajikistan, Lesotho, Nepal, Samoa, and Tonga receive a larger share of GDP in remittances compared to larger economies.

• Remittance Cost Trends:
  Remittance costs have fallen from 8.8% in 2008 to 7.3% in 2011, but remain high, especially in Africa and small nations.

• Key Risks to the Outlook:

  • Persistent unemployment in Europe and the U.S. is affecting employment prospects of migrants and political attitudes toward immigration.
  • A deepening European debt crisis could lead to tighter immigration controls, impact oil prices, and reduce demand for migrant labor.
  • Volatility in exchange rates presents further risks to remittance inflows.

Key Information

• Growth Drivers:

  • High oil prices have supported remittance flows to Asia, especially Central Asia and South Asia.
  • Currency depreciation in some recipient countries (e.g., Mexico, India, and Kenya) has increased remittance incentives due to the "sale effect" on local currency assets.

• Impact of the "Arab Spring":

  • The crisis in Libya led to mass returns of migrants from North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa, reducing remittance inflows.
  • Despite this, remittance flows to Sub-Saharan Africa still grew by 7.4% in 2011, partly due to strong south-south flows and currency weakness.

• Migration Trends:

  • The Philippines has seen resilient remittance flows due to diversification of migrant destinations and increased seafarer employment.
  • Bangladesh experienced a 37% increase in migrant deployments in the first three quarters of 2011, driven by oil price recovery and currency depreciation.

• Data Challenges:

  • There is a need for better data on remittance flows at the national and bilateral corridor level.
  • Some countries still use BPM4 instead of BPM6, leading to underreporting of inflows.
  • Bilateral remittance data is often missing or incomplete, with flows attributed to international clearing centers instead of the source countries.

• Indigenization Policies in the GCC:

  • Nitaqat in Saudi Arabia is a policy to increase employment of Saudi nationals, but it is unlikely to have a major impact on remittance flows in the medium term.
  • The program may lead to higher wages and reduced productivity, but foreign labor will still be dominant in the private sector due to labor shortages and low wages.

• Impact of Economic Downturns:

  • Unemployment in Europe and the U.S. has affected migrant employment and remittance flows.
  • Spain has been a major source of remittances for Latin America, but its economic decline has led to reduced inflows.
  • Construction sector in the U.S. has stabilized, but migrant employment remains below pre-crisis levels.

• Future Outlook:

  • The economic and political uncertainties in Western Europe and the U.S. could slow remittance growth.
  • The World Bank is working on improving remittance data and monitoring progress towards the "5 by 5" cost reduction objective.

Conclusion

The report outlines a recovery in remittance flows to developing countries in 2011, with varying regional performance. While growth is expected to continue, it will likely be slower than pre-crisis levels. Key risks include economic downturns, political restrictions, and exchange rate volatility. Data improvements are essential for accurate monitoring and policy development. Remittances remain a crucial source of income for many developing countries, especially those with high poverty rates and limited economic opportunities.