20140724-招商证券-Hong_Kong_Stock_Market_Outlook_2H14_40页_1mb

报告摘要

Global Monetary Policies Divergence: The Hong Kong stock market may face pressure from diverging monetary policies, particularly as the U.S. tightens policy and the Eurozone considers further stimulus.
China's Economic Development: Under the "New Normal" of economic growth, mini-stimulus policies will only affect the pace and slope of economic downturn, not the direction.
Real Estate Market Risks: The property market has reached a long-cycle peak, but not necessarily a sharp collapse. A short-cycle correction may lead to consolidation and survival of the fittest.
Style Rotation in 2H14: The market may experience a peak around September, with a focus on timing and the potential for short-term opportunities.
Allocation and Timing: Determining the right allocation and timing in a volatile market is crucial, with mid and small caps in emerging industries expected to bottom out.

HK Stocks to Move Up in 2H14: The Hong Kong stock market is expected to rise in the second half of 2014, with a peak likely around September.
Stimulus Factors: Key drivers for the market include interim results, the launch of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, and the finalization of policies at the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee.
2015 Outlook: Economic downside risks in China are unlikely to change significantly, and increased debt risks combined with tighter U.S. liquidity may not be favorable for HK stocks.
Market Range Estimation: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is expected to range between 20,000 and 24,000, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) is projected to be between 9,500 and 11,500.
Sector Outlook: Emerging industries with sustainable development and policy support, as well as traditional industries undergoing structural reform, are viewed as positive. Cyclicals with low valuation, such as property, banking, and automobile, may present trading opportunities.

U.S.: QE tapering is nearing an end, with rate hikes potentially starting by year-end.
U.K.: Rate hikes are expected to occur earlier than anticipated.
Eurozone: May consider a new version of QE if deflation and economic downturn risks persist.
Japan: Continues with monetary easing, expanding the monetary base by JPY6-7bn annually.
China: Monetary policy will remain differentiated and targeted, with general RRR cuts unlikely before policy finalization.

Economic Slowdown: China's economy is expected to slow again in Q3, with GDP growth around 7.2%.
Inflation and Deflation: CPI is expected to decline, while PPI may show some recovery.
Real Estate Consolidation: The real estate market is entering a consolidation phase, with weaker developers likely to exit. The valuation bottom is expected between July and August, while the sales bottom may occur in Q4.
Property Market: Prices and land transaction prices have declined, with inventory increasing. Property stocks are unlikely to collapse but may see prolonged correction.

Current Trend: Momentum stocks in emerging industries (TMT, biopharmaceuticals) have faced valuation correction, while value stocks (banks, property) have rebounded.
Future Trends: The market may see a reversal in style rotation, with property stocks potentially recovering after risks are priced in. Small and mid-cap stocks in emerging sectors may regain momentum.

Short-Term Impact: May accelerate style rotation and benefit large-cap blue chips and securities firms with presence in both markets.
Medium-Term Outlook: The program is expected to be launched in October, with potential for profit-taking and limited impact on long-term trends.

Market Outlook: The Hong Kong stock market is expected to show a low to high trend in 2H14, with a peak likely around September.
Risk Management: Investors should remain cautious and focus on locking in profits and managing risks, especially in the short term.
Sector Focus: Emerging industries with policy support and structural reforms, as well as traditional industries, are viewed as positive. Cyclicals with low valuation may offer trading opportunities.

257 HK (China Everbright): Bullish due to low financing costs and industry consolidation.
2318 HK (Ping An): Strong 1Q results and internet finance strategy.
2208 HK (Goldwind): Strong net profit growth and recovery in wind power industry.
1251 HK (SPT Energy): Benefiting from oil and gas industry opening up and sound relationships with PetroChina.
2282 HK (MGM China): Expected growth from new gaming properties and steady market share.
1071 HK (Huadian Power): Expected net profit growth and improved debt-asset ratio.
777 HK (NetDragon): Stable game revenue and potential from new mobile games.
460 HK (Sihuan Pharm): Strong business model and financial position.
1378 HK (China Hongqiao): Cost advantages and business model synergy.
6837 HK (Haitong Sec): Valuation is returning to a reasonable range and benefits from Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect.