2004年-世界发展银行全球_Turkey___Gas_Sector_Strategy_Note_72页_1mb

Summary of Turkey's Gas Sector Strategy Note (Report No. 30030-TR)

Core Content

This World Bank report outlines a strategy for accelerating the liberalization of Turkey's natural gas market in line with the objectives of the Natural Gas Market Law (NGML) of 2001 (Law No. 4646). It emphasizes the need for a structured, phased transition to a more competitive and transparent market, known as 'Structure 2010'. The report focuses on the transformation of the gas sector, particularly the reorganization of the Turkish National Gas Company (BOTAS), the introduction of wholesale competition, and the development of competitive import buying and gas transit.

Main Objectives

The strategic objective is to:

• Promote the expanded use of natural gas on an economic basis
• Create a competitive domestic wholesale market
• Maximize Turkey's potential as a gas transit corridor
• Address the supply overhang and reduce the state's contingent liabilities
• Shift market risks to the private sector

Key Recommendations

1.1. 'Structure 2010': Modern Market Framework

'Structure 2010' represents a modernized gas market structure, involving changes across the entire gas supply chain. It includes the unbundling of BOTAS' functions into separate legal entities for importing, transmission, and wholesale supply.

• Functional Unbundling: The report suggests that BOTAS should be split into separate entities to promote competition and transparency.
• Phased Transition: The transition is expected to take around 8 years, with a gradual shift from the current monopolistic structure to a competitive one.

1.2. 'Buy' Function

• Abandoning BOTAS' Monopoly: The report recommends that the current single-buyer model be replaced with a competitive import regime to foster real competition in the gas supply market.
• Reducing BOTAS' Share: The target of reducing BOTAS' import share to 20% by 2009 is deemed too ambitious. Instead, a more gradual reduction is advised, with a focus on ensuring fair competition rather than specific market share targets.
• Gas Release Program: A gas release program is suggested as a more practical approach to introducing competition, allowing for incremental transfer of gas volumes to new market participants without disrupting upstream contracts.

1.3. 'Sell' Function

• Wholesale Competition: The report emphasizes that wholesale competition is essential for the development of a competitive market.
• Breaking Monopoly: The wholesale monopoly of BOTAS should be dismantled as an immediate step.
• Implementation Steps: This includes the establishment of a Working Group on Wholesale Competition (WGWC), the development of model contracts, and the introduction of volume auctions.

1.4. Transit Function

• BOTAS as Transmission Entity: The report recommends that BOTAS should act as a transmission entity rather than a merchant gas company to facilitate the development of Turkey as a gas corridor.
• Flexibility in Transit Rules: The law should allow for flexibility in who can be involved in transit, including private investors, while setting clear limits on the control of state-owned suppliers to prevent abuse of monopoly power.

1.5. Managing the Transition

• Phased and Integrated Program: A carefully planned, integrated program over an 8-year period is necessary to manage the transition.
• Policy Statement: An early policy statement should be issued to guide industry players and regulators.
• Legislative Review: A review of the NGML and related legislation is required to align with new policy needs.
• Gas Consultative Body: A consultative body should be established to provide practical advice to the government.
• Change Champion: A Change Champion at the undersecretary level should be appointed to resolve conflicts and guide the transformation.
• Technical Assistance: International technical assistance is recommended for areas such as gas release, market design, and contract development.

Key Information

• Current Challenges: The gas sector is monolithic, lacks transparency, and has not developed wholesale competition. International investors are concerned about delays.
• Supply Overhang: The overhang of contracted gas imports is a significant issue that needs to be managed through export, re-export, or other mechanisms.
• Competition in Importing: The report advocates for a competitive import regime, which would allow new entrants to participate and reduce the state's financial liabilities.
• Implementation Timeline: A detailed timeline of activities and responsibilities is provided, covering the period from 2004 to 2012.

Strategic Context

2.1 SWOT Analysis

2.2 Supply and Demand Outlook

• Turkey's gas consumption has been growing rapidly, with a significant increase in the last few years.
• The share of gas in Turkey's Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) remains below the European average, indicating substantial unrealized potential.
• The supply overhang is a major challenge, requiring careful management to avoid market distortions.

Conclusion

The report provides a comprehensive strategy for transforming Turkey's gas sector into a competitive, transparent, and financially sound market. It emphasizes the importance of functional unbundling of BOTAS, the introduction of wholesale competition, and the development of a competitive import regime. The phased transition approach aims to address the current challenges and leverage the opportunities for Turkey to become a key player in the regional gas market.