2004年-世界发展银行全球_Republic_of_Lebanon___Hydrocarbon_Strategy_Study_110页_7mb

Summary of Republic of Lebanon Hydrocarbon Strategy Study

Core Content

This document outlines the Republic of Lebanon's strategy for introducing and utilizing natural gas in its energy market, with a focus on the power sector and potential for broader use across other sectors. It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive, long-term approach to reform the energy sector, enhance market efficiency, and ensure financial and environmental sustainability.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Lebanon's Energy Balance and Potential Gas Demand

• Energy Demand in 2002: Total energy demand was around 208 million GJ, with the majority sourced from oil products.
• Primary Energy Sources:
  • Gas oil (diesel): 35%
  • Fuel oil: 31%
  • Gasoline: 25%
  • Kerosene and LPG: ~3% each
  • Hydro: 2%
• Delivered Energy to Customers:
  • Power generation: 54% (43% by EdL, 11% by private generators)
  • Transportation: 30% (mostly gasoline)
  • Industrial: 9% (fuel oil dominates)
  • Residential: 49% (LPG for cooking and heating)
  • Commercial and agriculture: 3% (gas oil and LPG)
• Future Gas Demand: By 2020, natural gas demand could reach 12.10 MMCM/day, with the power sector accounting for ~75% of this demand.

2. Gas Supply Options

• Regional Sources:
  • Syria: Immediate source with the GASYLE pipeline (32 km, 3 MMCM/day, 25-year contract)
  • Egypt: Potential source via the Arab Gas Pipeline (first phase completed, second phase under construction)
  • Iraq: Long-term potential if gas network is rehabilitated
• LNG: Considered as an option if prices fall, but not recommended until domestic demand outgrows more economic supply options.
• Security of Supply: Lebanon should maintain dual fuel capability and diversify gas sources to mitigate supply risks.

3. The Petroleum Sector and Implications from Increased Gas Demand

• Challenges in the Petroleum Sector:
  • Lack of competition in oil product import and distribution
  • Monopolization of LPG by a single company
  • Limited access to storage facilities
  • Government involvement in oil import and distribution
  • Low taxes on gas oil
  • Administered pricing leading to high margins
• Recommendations:
  • Restructure the oil products market and reform pricing
  • Create open access to storage facilities
  • Introduce competition in LPG import and distribution
  • Reduce government role and focus on regulation and safety nets

4. The Potential for a Refinery in Lebanon

• Current Refinery Status: Existing refineries have been out of operation since 1989 and 1992, now used only for storage and import.
• Demand for Oil Products: Expected to decrease with increased gas use, especially for heavy distillates like fuel oil and gas oil.
• Refinery Feasibility:
  • Lebanon lacks indigenous oil reserves, relying on imports
  • Domestic demand for refined products is expected to decline
  • International markets are highly competitive, limiting export potential
• Recommendations:
  • Private sector should assess the feasibility of entering the refining market
  • Government should act as a facilitator rather than financier

5. The Gas Market Structure

• Initial Market Structure: MEW will control gas import, shipping, and supply in the short term
• Future Market Structure:
  • Encourage multiple players to avoid monopolization
  • Implement a "phased" approach to gas infrastructure development
  • Separate monopoly transportation activities from competitive import and supply businesses
  • Create a regulated third-party access (RTPA) regime for transportation networks

6. Legal and Regulatory Framework for the Gas Sector

• Regulatory Needs:
  • Establish a regulatory regime based on primary gas legislation
  • Separate regulatory functions from policy
  • Allow large gas customers to choose their own supplier
  • Create a joint gas and electricity regulator
• Recommendations:
  • Develop and implement a Model Gas Law
  • Set up a joint regulator for gas and electricity

7. Benefits of Introducing Natural Gas

• Power Sector Benefits:
  • Significant cost reductions in power generation
  • Annual savings estimated at US$90 million to US$140 million
  • Additional savings from reduced O&M costs (~US$10 million)
• Environmental Benefits:
  • Improved air quality
  • Estimated environmental and health damage savings between US$740 million and US$1.8 billion from 2005 to 2020

Conclusion

The introduction of natural gas in Lebanon is seen as a critical step towards improving the country's energy and fiscal situation. It can reduce power generation costs, improve environmental outcomes, and promote competition in the energy market. However, the success of this strategy depends on the reform and restructuring of the power sector, which is currently in a fragile state. A comprehensive legal and regulatory framework is essential to support a competitive and efficient gas market, while the decision to build a new refinery should be left to the private sector.