2011年-世界发展银行全球_Perus_Downstream_Natural_Gas_Sector___A_Preliminary_Assessment_66页_1mb

Summary of Peru's Downstream Natural Gas Sector: A Preliminary Assessment

Core Content

This report provides an overview of Peru's downstream natural gas sector, focusing on the role of natural gas in the country's energy matrix, the current consumption patterns, and potential new markets for natural gas. It also outlines key issues and options for improving the sector, emphasizing the need for policy reforms, infrastructure development, and integrated energy planning.

Main Points

I. Introduction

• Natural gas, particularly from the Camisea Field, has played a significant role in diversifying Peru's energy matrix since 2004.
• The government implemented promotional policies, including low prices for domestic users, which attracted private sector investment but may have hindered broader energy development, especially in hydroelectricity.
• The report aims to identify new markets for natural gas beyond the power sector and assess the efficiency and sustainability of current policies.

II. The Natural Gas Sector in Peru

The Camisea Project

• The Camisea Gas Field, discovered in the 1980s, became operational in 2004 and has been a major source of natural gas for Peru.
• The government's low price policy for natural gas has been effective in increasing its adoption, especially in the power sector.

Consumption by Sector

• The power sector is the largest consumer of natural gas, accounting for 65% of total consumption from the Camisea Field in 2008.
• The industrial sector is the second-largest consumer, with potential for growth.
• Transportation (NGV) has seen modest growth, primarily in the Lima-Callao region.
• Residential and commercial use remains low due to high upfront costs and government subsidies for LPG.

Energy Diversification

• Natural gas has contributed to a shift in energy mix, increasing its share from 7% in 2002 to 28% in 2008.
• The dominance of the power sector has led to concerns about the inefficient use of natural gas and the neglect of other energy sources like hydroelectricity.

Future Projections

• Under the "Centralized Scenario," gas demand in 20 years is expected to be 1,337 MMCFD for domestic use and 625 MMCFD for LNG exports.
• The "Decentralized Scenario" proposes expanding gas use to other regions, including developing petrochemical industries in the south.

III. Potential New Markets for Natural Gas

Industry

• The industrial sector currently consumes gas in a few large urban areas.
• There is a significant cost advantage of natural gas over other fuels, which could drive demand.
• The industrial sector is projected to consume 290 MMCFD in 20 years, representing 22% of total consumption.

Transport

• NGV demand is concentrated in Lima-Callao, with 35,000 vehicles using it by mid-2008.
• The growth of NGV is expected to increase significantly, reaching 38.5 MMCFD by 2033.
• The number of refueling stations is projected to rise from 32 to 185 by 2033.
• Price incentives for NGV are important for overcoming consumer resistance but should decrease as the market matures.

Residential and Commercial

• Limited demand for residential and commercial use is due to high installation costs and low LPG prices.
• A new tariff regulation allows financing of service connections and equipment through fixed monthly charges.
• The number of residential users is expected to increase from 12,000 to 100,000 in five years, with a small share of total consumption.

Petrochemicals

• Peru currently imports all petrochemical products and lacks a domestic industry.
• The potential for a petrochemical industry based on natural gas is limited due to high initial costs and the need for infrastructure.
• The development of ethane-based industries could be a second phase of petrochemical expansion, but requires a clear location and market demand analysis.
• Netback prices for gas in the petrochemical sector are higher than the current price, making it less attractive for private investment unless low-cost reserves are available.

IV. Issues and Options for Improving the Downstream Gas Sector

Natural Gas Reserves

• Peru's proven reserves are estimated at 9–11 Tcf, while potential resources could be as high as 50 Tcf.
• Accurate reserve estimates are crucial for attracting investment and planning infrastructure.
• A high reserve scenario allows for more diverse uses, including petrochemicals and exports, while a low reserve scenario focuses on domestic consumption.

Energy Efficiency Potential

• The majority of power plants in Peru use open-cycle technology, which is less efficient than combined-cycle plants.
• Switching to combined-cycle technology could reduce gas consumption by 28% and save around 18% of total consumption.
• The current price of natural gas is significantly lower than the price at which combined-cycle generation becomes competitive.

Integrated Energy Planning

• The government needs to coordinate energy planning across sectors to improve efficiency and attract investment.
• Integrated planning could help align the development of natural gas with broader energy and environmental goals.

Infrastructure Development

• Expanding gas transport infrastructure is essential for decentralizing the market and increasing access to other regions.
• The development of new pipelines, such as Lima-Chimbote and Camisea-Ilo, is critical for enabling growth in non-power sectors.

Natural Gas Pricing

• Current pricing policies may be discouraging investment in other energy sectors.
• Reforms in pricing could promote the use of renewable energy and improve the efficiency of the gas sector.

Key Information

• Camisea Gas Field is the primary source of natural gas in Peru, with a significant impact on the energy matrix.
• Power sector dominates natural gas consumption, with a large share of gas used for electricity generation.
• Petrochemical development is a potential new market but requires significant investment and policy support.
• NGV has shown growth potential but is limited by high conversion costs and the concentration of demand in Lima-Callao.
• Residential and commercial use remains limited due to cost and policy factors.
• Energy efficiency improvements are possible through the adoption of combined-cycle technology.
• Accurate reserve estimates and integrated planning are critical for the sustainable development of the gas sector.
• Pricing reforms and infrastructure expansion are key to unlocking new markets and promoting energy diversification.