2016年-数据局_德勤：2015年第四季德勤全球并购指数2016年差异中见机遇_24页_2mb

The Deloitte M&A Index: 2016 Summary

Core Content

The Deloitte M&A Index forecasts global M&A deal volumes and identifies factors influencing dealmaking. It is based on a composite of weighted market indicators from four data sets: macroeconomic and key market indicators, funding and liquidity conditions, company fundamentals, and valuation trends. The model is dynamic and evolving, enabling Deloitte to project future M&A volumes and identify key drivers.

Main Points

• 2015 Deal Values: 2015 is expected to end with over $4 trillion in deal values, the highest since 2007. However, the volume of transactions slowed in the second half of the year on a last-twelve-months (LTM) basis.
• Cross-border Deals: Over $1 trillion in cross-border deals were announced in 2015, with a third in the North America-Europe corridor. New corridors are emerging between Asia and Europe, led by China and Japan.
• Synergy Potential: Companies are targeting annualised cost synergies of 3–4% of deal value, which could add $1.5–1.9 trillion to their value if fully realised. Integration costs are estimated at 4–5% of deal value.
• Disruptive Innovation: Companies are responding to disruptive innovation by launching venture funds to invest in new sources of innovation, potentially leading to more strategic, smaller deals.
• Global Divergence: Economic and monetary policy divergence is expected to create M&A opportunities in 2016. The US and Europe are showing contrasting trends, with the US experiencing a slowdown and Europe benefiting from ECB quantitative easing.
• Chinese M&A Shift: China's growth slowdown has led to a shift in M&A focus from domestic to outbound deals, particularly in Europe. The TMT and consumer sectors are seeing increased activity.
• Japanese M&A Surge: Japanese companies, driven by a weak yen and high corporate profits, are increasing outbound M&A, which now exceeds domestic activity. They have spent $56.4 billion on overseas acquisitions so far in 2015.
• Deal Corridors: The US and UK are leading cross-border M&A. The Trans-Pacific Partnership is expected to boost deal activity in the future.
• Geographic Trends: North America leads in deal values, followed by Asia-Pacific and Europe. Africa and the Middle East have seen a decline in M&A due to falling commodity prices.
• Sector Highlights:
  • Consumer Business: Strong M&A activity, with cross-border deals led by US and European companies. Asian acquirers are expected to drive growth in 2016.
  • Energy and Resources: Consolidation is ongoing due to the end of the commodity super-cycle. Deal volumes have declined for four consecutive years.
  • Manufacturing: Deal values increased in aerospace and defence, and paper and forest products. Asia has become a major source of deals.
  • TMT: Significant growth in deal values, driven by convergence and consolidation. Asian companies are emerging as key targets.

Key Information

• Deal Value Trends: The US and Asia have seen higher P/E multiples, while Europe remains relatively stable.
• Cash Reserves: North American non-financial companies have the highest cash reserves in the S&P 1200 Index, at $1.6 trillion.
• Integration Challenges: Companies are expected to focus heavily on realising synergies and managing integration costs.
• Monetary Policy Divergence: The US has seen gradual rate increases, while the ECB continues with quantitative easing, creating opportunities for European funding.
• Growth Markets: Growth markets such as India and ASEAN countries are becoming more attractive for M&A activity.

Conclusion

The Deloitte M&A Index highlights that 2016 will be shaped by global economic and monetary divergence, with cross-border deals playing a central role. Companies are increasingly looking to strategic M&A to offset economic headwinds and capitalise on growth opportunities in emerging markets. The focus on realising synergies and managing integration will be crucial for long-term value creation.