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Deloitte M&A Index Summary - 2016

Core Content

The Deloitte M&A Index provides a forward-looking forecast of global M&A deal volumes and identifies the factors influencing dealmaking conditions. Based on data from Q4 2015, the report highlights the following key trends and insights for 2016:

• Record-breaking deal values: 2015 is expected to end with over $4 trillion in deal values, the highest since 2007. However, there was a slowdown in the volume of transactions in the second half of the year.
• Cross-border deals: Over $1 trillion in cross-border deals have been announced so far in 2015, with a significant portion in the North America-Europe corridor. New corridors between Asia and Europe are also emerging, particularly driven by China and Japan.
• Synergy potential: Companies are committing to deliver annualised cost synergies averaging 3-4% of the transaction value, which could add an estimated $1.5-1.9 trillion to company values if fully realised.
• Disruptive innovation: Companies are increasingly investing in venture funds to seek and invest in new sources of innovation, which may lead to more strategic, smaller deals.
• Global economic divergence: The US and Europe are experiencing divergent growth and monetary policies, which is expected to create new M&A opportunities in 2016.

Key Points

• 2015 deal values: Over $4 trillion in deal values, the highest since 2007.
• Cross-border deals: Over $1 trillion in cross-border deals, with a third in the North America-Europe corridor.
• Synergy estimates: Realising all cost synergies could add $1.5-1.9 trillion to company values.
• US and European growth: US growth outlook reduced to 2.8% in 2016, while the eurozone is expected to grow at 1.6%.
• Corporate performance: European corporate margins have increased strongly since 2013, while US companies face earnings pressure due to a strong dollar.
• Monetary policy divergence: US interest rates are expected to rise, while the ECB continues quantitative easing, creating opportunities for European debt financing.
• Chinese M&A trends: Chinese companies have spent $65.8 billion in overseas acquisitions, with a shift towards TMT and consumer sectors.
• Japanese M&A resurgence: Japanese companies have increased their overseas acquisitions, with $56.4 billion in deals so far in 2015, surpassing domestic deals for the first time.

Factors Influencing M&A in 2016

• Economic growth divergence: The US and Europe are experiencing different growth trajectories, creating opportunities for cross-border deals.
• Monetary policy divergence: The ECB's quantitative easing and US rate hikes are affecting bond yields and funding conditions.
• Corporate performance: European margins are improving, while US companies face earnings pressure due to a strong dollar.
• Deal valuations and cash positions: US and Asian deal P/E multiples are above their 15-year averages, while European multiples are more attractive.
• Integration costs: Integration costs are estimated to represent 4-5% of deal value, highlighting the importance of effective post-merger integration.

Deal Corridors

• US and UK lead cross-border M&A: The North America-Europe corridor dominated, with $311 billion in deals, and the UK attracting $313 billion in M&A investment.
• Asia and Europe: New corridors are emerging between Asia and Europe, with China and Japan as key players.
• G7 vs. growth markets: Growth markets nations have announced $49.6 billion in acquisitions in G7 countries, the highest in over a decade.

Geographies

• North America: Over $2.0 trillion in deals, with US companies leading the resurgence in domestic M&A.
• Europe: $1.1 trillion in deals, with $237 billion in inbound deals, driven by US acquirers.
• Asia-Pacific: $851 billion in domestic deals, led by China. Outbound investment continues despite slower domestic growth.
• Africa and Middle East: M&A activity has declined due to falling commodity prices, with inbound deals in Australia boosted by the weak dollar.
• South America: M&A activity is the lowest since 2005, with cross-border deals accounting for 62% of total deal value.

Sectors

• Consumer business: $655.5 billion in deals, with $258 billion cross-border. Asian acquirers are expected to continue this trend in 2016.
• Energy and resources: $534.8 billion in deals, with ten mega deals. Consolidation is expected due to declining commodity prices.
• Manufacturing: $297 billion in deals, with a sharp increase in aerospace and defence, and paper and forest products sectors.
• Technology, media and telecoms (TMT): $928 billion in deals, with a significant rise compared to 2014. Asia is emerging as a major target region.

Key Insights

• The divergence in global economic growth and monetary policies is expected to shape M&A activity in 2016.
• Cross-border deals will remain a key feature, with new corridors emerging between Asia and Europe.
• Integration is critical for realising synergies and creating shareholder value.
• The US and Europe will continue to be major players in M&A, with the US leading in deal values and the UK as a top target.
• China and Japan are driving significant M&A activity, with a shift in focus towards strategic deals in TMT and consumer sectors.