2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Union_of_the_Comoros_Poverty_Reduction_Strategy_Paper_Review_of_the_Second_Year_of_Implementation_86页_1mb

Summary of the Union of Comoros Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper—Review of the Second Year of Implementation

Core Content

This document is a review of the second year of implementation (2011) of the Union of Comoros Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy Paper (PRGSP), prepared by the Comorian authorities and completed in October 2012. It provides an assessment of progress in poverty reduction and economic growth, highlighting the achievements and challenges faced in the implementation of the strategy.

Main Viewpoints

• Political and Institutional Context: The Union of Comoros has experienced prolonged political instability since independence in 1975. The resolution of the Anjouan separatist crisis and the consolidation of national unity marked a significant turning point.
• New Leadership: The new president, Dr. Ikilou Dhoinine, took office in May 2011, following the December 2010 election and the May 2011 assumption of office by the island governors.
• Macroeconomic Performance: The country recorded a real GDP growth rate of 2.6% in 2011, compared to 2.2% in 2010, with a modest inflation rate of 1.8%. The government managed to avoid unpaid wages and improved the primary balance to a surplus of 1.6% of GDP.
• Fiscal Consolidation: The budgetary balance improved from a deficit of 2.2% in 2010 to a surplus of 1.1% in 2011. Domestic lending increased by 4.3%, and the required reserve ratio was reduced to 25%.
• External Debt: The external debt remains unsustainable at 343% of exports, necessitating accelerated implementation of HIPC triggers to reduce the debt burden.
• Poverty and Inequality: According to 2003 studies, poverty incidence was 36.9%, with a significant portion in rural areas. Inequality increased, as shown by the Gini index rising from 0.443 to 0.557.
• Economic Openness: The degree of economic openness increased to 52% in 2011, while the import coverage rate was 9.1%.
• Infrastructure Development: The government prioritized road repairs, particularly in areas with high agricultural potential. The built water network reached 23 km, exceeding projections.
• Private Sector Reforms: Substantial reforms were initiated to improve the business climate, including the establishment of the National Agency for Promotion of Investments. The country moved up in the World Bank's "Doing Business" rankings.
• Agriculture and Livestock: Agricultural production growth exceeded targets, supported by development partners. Livestock vaccination coverage improved, but the mortality rate remains high.
• Tourism: The sector grew by 3.3% in 2011, but underperformance was due to transportation challenges and high costs. New tourism infrastructure is expected to improve the situation.
• Health and Education: Malaria incidence dropped significantly, and health vaccination coverage improved. Education enrollment increased, but the rate of primary school completion remained low, and the university was unable to meet its admission targets.
• Environmental Sustainability: Five biodiversity inventories were completed, and training programs were launched for environmental management and sustainable practices.
• Resource Mobilization: 62% of the programmed resources were mobilized, with the highest contributions from water and sanitation (206%), governance (113%), and energy (98.8%). Social sectors like health and education mobilized only 39.5% and 34% respectively.
• Challenges: Delays in structural reforms, insufficient human and financial resources, limited data collection capacity, and issues in public safety and infrastructure remain significant challenges.

Key Information

• Poverty Indicators:
  • 369 out of 1000 people live below the poverty line.
  • 78.8% of the poor reside in rural areas.
  • 36.9% of households are poor.
  • 44.8% of individuals are classified as poor based on the monetary poverty index.
• Economic Performance:
  • Real GDP growth: 2.6% (2011), 2.2% (2010).
  • Inflation rate: 1.8% (2011).
  • External current account deficit: 9.5% of GDP (2011), compared to 7% (2010).
• Structural Reforms:
  • Road repairs: 41 km total, including 17 km on Ngazidja, 17 km on Ndzouani, and 6.5 km on Mwali.
  • Water network: 23 km built, exceeding projections.
• Private Sector and Business Climate:
  • 107 new businesses were created in 2011.
  • The Comoros ranked 150th in the World Bank's Doing Business Report (159th without electricity).
• HIPC Implementation:
  • Two out of four HIPC indicators were achieved.
  • Continued efforts are needed to meet the remaining targets, particularly in education and sanitation.
• Governance and Social Cohesion:
  • 16 peace committees were established.
  • Reconciliation efforts were made between ex-FGAs and their victims.
  • Biometric data was introduced into electoral rolls.
• Health and Education:
  • Malaria incidence dropped from 50% (2004) to 36% (2011).
  • Primary school enrollment increased by 5 percentage points (62% in 2011).
  • University admissions rose from 50% to 60%, but the target of 77% was not met.
• Resource Mobilization:
  • 62% of the CF 92,977 million programmed was mobilized.
  • Significant contributions from water and sanitation, governance, and energy sectors.
• Data and Monitoring:
  • Limited capacity for generating data for monitoring and evaluation.
  • Institutional framework for monitoring the PRGS was established, but implementation of key projects was delayed.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The implementation of the PRGSP in 2011 showed some positive outcomes, particularly in macroeconomic performance, infrastructure development, and private sector growth. However, significant challenges remain, including high levels of poverty and inequality, unsustainable external debt, and delayed structural reforms. The government is encouraged to continue efforts in resource mobilization, particularly in education and sanitation, and to strengthen the institutional and human capacity for effective implementation and monitoring of the strategy.