2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Sudan_Interim_Poverty_Reduction_Strategy_Paper_13页_415kb

Sudan Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (I-PRSP) - Joint Staff Advisory Note Summary

Core Content

The Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (I-PRSP) for Sudan, prepared jointly by the World Bank and IMF staff, serves as a strategic document aimed at accelerating poverty reduction and laying the groundwork for a full Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). It was approved by the Council of Ministers and Parliament in 2012 and reflects the country's response to the socio-economic challenges following the secession of South Sudan in 2011.

Main Viewpoints

• Context and Purpose:
  The I-PRSP was developed in the context of Sudan's post-secession transition and the need to address the resulting economic and social shocks. It outlines a comprehensive policy approach to poverty reduction, with a focus on inclusive governance, reintegration of displaced populations, human resource development, and economic growth.

• Participation and Inclusiveness:
  While the I-PRSP reflects a participatory process, it is noted that the consultation involved mainly government officials and a limited number of civil society organizations. A more inclusive and broad-based process is required for the full PRSP, particularly involving CSOs, the private sector, and marginalized communities.

• Poverty Diagnostics:
  Based on the 2009 National Baseline Household Survey (NBHS), the I-PRSP highlights that 46.5% of Sudan's population is below the poverty line. Regional disparities are significant, with rural areas (57.6%) experiencing higher poverty rates than urban areas (26.5%). Education and health levels are low, with education being a key determinant of poverty.

• Sectoral Strategies:
  The I-PRSP outlines four main pillars for poverty reduction:

  • Strengthening governance and public sector capacity.
  • Reintegration of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees.
  • Developing human resources, particularly through education and health.
  • Promoting economic growth and employment creation.

Key Information

A. Strengthening Governance and Institutional Capacity in the Public Sector

• The I-PRSP emphasizes the importance of inclusive governance and its role in economic growth and poverty reduction.
• Public financial management (PFM) and capacity building in the civil service are critical to improving service delivery and reducing overhead costs.
• A transparent public procurement system is needed to support effective implementation of PFM reforms.
• The fiscal revenue allocation mechanism should be reviewed to ensure more predictable funding for state and local governments.

B. Reintegration of IDPs and Other Displaced Populations

• Conflicts in Sudan and neighboring countries have created large numbers of IDPs and international refugees, with significant concentrations in Darfur, Khartoum, and East Sudan.
• Systematic reintegration into sustainable livelihoods is essential for peace, security, and development.
• The Community Development Fund (CDF) has been successful in conflict-affected states, offering a model for community-driven development.
• International assistance is crucial for reintegration, and partnerships with aid agencies and NGOs are encouraged.

C. Developing Human Resources

• Sudan has made progress in improving women's rights, education access, and health services.
• Regional disparities in education and health outcomes persist, with conflict-affected states lagging behind.
• Investments in education and health, particularly in the private sector and through partnerships, are recommended.
• The I-PRSP highlights the need for improved quality of education and health services, as well as addressing financing constraints.

D. Promotion of Economic Growth and Employment Creation

• Economic growth is needed to create employment and reduce poverty, particularly from non-natural resource sectors.
• The I-PRSP emphasizes the importance of a supportive macroeconomic environment and private sector growth.
• Sudan has underutilized agricultural resources, and the sector has suffered from declining productivity.
• Infrastructure development, especially in transport and energy, is vital for economic recovery and growth.
• Environmental degradation remains a significant challenge, and a comprehensive sector analysis is required for effective policy planning.

Macroeconomic Framework

• Sudan achieved macroeconomic stability from 1996 to 2010, with real GDP growth averaging 4.5% and inflation under control.
• The secession of South Sudan in 2011 caused a significant revenue shock, leading to macroeconomic imbalances.
• The I-PRSP outlines medium-term macroeconomic objectives for 2013–2015, including:
  • Sustaining an average growth rate of 4%.
  • Bringing inflation down to 10%.
  • Reducing the overall budget deficit to 3% of GDP.
  • Containing the current account deficit to 3.1% of GDP.
• These objectives are considered reasonable, but the implementation of corrective policies is essential to address existing imbalances.
• Fiscal space is limited due to the permanent shock from the loss of oil revenues, necessitating selectivity and prioritization in new poverty reduction initiatives.

Conclusion

The I-PRSP represents a critical step in Sudan's development strategy, providing a foundation for future poverty reduction efforts. However, it requires further strengthening in terms of inclusiveness, implementation, and macroeconomic management. A full PRSP should build on the I-PRSP's achievements and address the gaps in participation, policy coherence, and resource allocation to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth.