2015年-世界发展银行全球_Rwanda_Employment_and_Jobs_Study_107页_5mb

Summary of RWANDA Employment and Jobs Study (June 2015)

Core Content

This report presents an analysis of employment dynamics in Rwanda, focusing on the shift from agricultural to non-farm jobs, the structure of employment, and the outlook for job creation over the coming years. It is based on data from the Integrated Household Living Conditions Surveys (EICV1, EICV2, EICV3) and the 2011 Establishment Census, highlighting the progress made and the challenges that remain.

Main Points

1. Employment Landscape

• Agriculture Dominates: In 2011, 70% of workers were employed in agriculture, with farm self-employment accounting for 58.9% of total employment.
• Informality is Widespread: Only 7% of employment is in the modern wage sector (public and private formal), while 95% of firms are informal, contributing 71% of employment in establishments.
• Low Earnings: Most workers earn low incomes. In 2011, the median monthly earnings were Rwf 18,175 (about $31 in USD or $54 in PPP terms), with 33% of workers earning below the poverty line.
• Underemployment: Time-related underemployment stood at 36% in 2011, indicating a significant portion of workers would like to work more hours.
• High Number of Jobs per Worker: In 2011, two-thirds of workers had multiple jobs, but the median hours worked per week decreased from 29 in 2006 to 26 in 2011.

2. Shift from Farm to Non-Farm Jobs

• Non-Farm Employment Growth: The share of non-farm employment increased from 23% in 2006 to 30% in 2011, with 45% of workers having a non-agricultural job when considering all occupations.
• Youth Migration: Young men are increasingly moving away from agriculture, while older men are shifting to non-farm jobs as secondary occupations.
• Women in Agriculture: Young women are moving from unpaid to paid agricultural work, contributing to a shift in the employment structure within agriculture.

3. Earnings and Productivity

• Earnings Growth: Median earnings from all jobs increased by 66% between 2006 and 2011, with the share of workers earning below the poverty line dropping from 54% to 33%.
• Productivity as a Driver: Increases in labor productivity accounted for over 90% of GDP per capita growth between 2006 and 2011.
• Diversification and Additional Jobs: These factors were key to earnings growth, especially for low-earners (additional jobs) and high-earners (diversification into non-farm sectors).

4. Formal Private Sector Growth

• Employment Growth: The formal private sector employment increased from 90,000 in 2006 to 200,000 in 2011, representing 4% of total employment.
• Job Creation Potential: The formal private sector added 35% of employment in formal firms between 2006 and 2011.

5. Employment Outlook

• Projected GDP Growth: Rwanda's economy is expected to grow at an average rate of over 7% per year through 2020.
• Employment Growth: Overall employment is projected to increase by 2.2 million between 2011 and 2020, with most jobs absorbed by the secondary and tertiary sectors.
• Agricultural Share Decline: The share of employment in agriculture is expected to drop from 70% in 2011 to 56% in 2020.
• Jobs Challenge: The country faces a significant challenge in creating enough jobs to absorb the growing labor force (220,000 per year from 2015 to 2020) and improving earnings for workers in low-income sectors.

Key Recommendations

• Urban Development: Promoting urbanization and improving infrastructure in secondary cities can increase non-farm service activity and labor demand.
• Market Access: Enhancing transport and market accessibility in the Western Province, especially around Lake Kivu, is crucial for boosting agricultural productivity and non-farm employment.
• Electrification: Electrification in areas like Rubavu and Rusizi can support economic growth and job creation.
• Agricultural Productivity: Increasing agricultural productivity remains central to improving earnings and facilitating labor reallocation from rural to urban areas and from farming to non-farming.

Conclusion

Rwanda has made significant progress in employment and poverty reduction over the past decade, driven by economic growth, diversification into non-farm sectors, and productivity gains. However, the country still faces challenges in addressing underemployment, low earnings, and the need to create sufficient jobs for the growing labor force. A focus on urban development, market accessibility, and agricultural productivity will be essential for sustaining these positive trends and achieving long-term employment and poverty reduction goals.