2016年-世界发展银行全球_Rwanda_Economic_Update_February_2016___Rwanda_at_Work_79页_2mb

Rwanda Economic Update Summary (February 2016)

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of Rwanda's economic developments and employment trends up to 2015, with a focus on the labor market dynamics and their implications for growth and poverty reduction.

Main Economic Developments (Part One)

1.1 Introduction

• The World Bank revised its global growth forecast for 2015 to 2.4% and for 2016 to 2.9%, down from previous estimates, due to a slowdown in the Chinese and European economies.
• Rwanda's growth rate in 2015 was projected at 7.1%, 6.8% in 2016, and 7.2% in 2017, close to its potential growth.
• Macroeconomic stability, including inflation and exchange rates, has been maintained, supporting continued growth.

1.2 Real Sector

• Real GDP growth remained steady at 6.9% in the first three quarters of 2015, consistent with the average over the past five years.
• Private consumption has accelerated, while public consumption has had a negative impact on GDP growth due to reduced recurrent expenditures.

1.3 External Sector

• Rwanda's trade balance improved by 25% in 2015, mainly due to a decline in energy imports (−21%) and a decrease in oil prices (−29%).
• The trade deficit decreased slightly by 1% in 2015 as the decline in imports outweighed the decline in exports.
• Rwanda's exports are heavily dependent on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and East African Community (EAC) countries, with DRC accounting for 32% of exports and EAC for 20%.
• China accounts for less than 5% of Rwanda's exports but contributes significantly to imports (around 20%).

1.4 Monetary Sector

• The average inflation rate in 2015 was 2.5%, supported by stable import prices and falling oil prices.
• The Rwandan franc depreciated against the US dollar but appreciated in real effective exchange rate (REER), which helped keep import prices stable.
• Credit to the private sector grew at 26.8% in Q4 2015, close to the peak of 35.3% in Q2 2012, indicating strong economic activity.

1.5 Fiscal Sector

• Fiscal policy has become less expansionary, with the overall budget deficit increasing from 4.3% of GDP in FY2013/14 to 5.3% in FY2014/15.
• Domestic revenues increased, and the tax-to-GDP ratio improved to 15.6% from 14.9%.
• Capital expenditures also rose, contributing to the country's development efforts.

1.6 Macroeconomic Policy and Management

• Tax reforms were implemented in late 2014, including revising the investment code, broadening VAT base, reviewing excise tax regime, and introducing new levies.
• Rwanda improved its business regulatory environment, ranking 62nd among 189 economies in the 2016 Doing Business survey, second best in SSA after Mauritius.

1.7 Economic Prospects

• Growth is expected to remain around 7% in the coming years, supported by macroeconomic stability and a positive regional outlook.
• Downside risks include external economic slowdowns, slow budget execution, and inadequate development financing.

1.8 Labor Transition and Growth in Labor Productivity

• Labor productivity has increased due to inter-sectoral shifts, particularly from agriculture to non-farm sectors.
• The formal private sector is growing but remains small in terms of employment, with only 4% of working Rwandans employed in it.
• The non-farm sector accounted for the majority of new jobs since 2006, with young men driving the transition.

Employment Trends (Part Two)

2.1 Rwanda's Employment Landscape: The 2011 Snapshot

• In 2011, 70% of workers were engaged in agriculture, with the rest in non-farm activities.
• Farm self-employment dominated (60%), followed by farm wage employment (12%).
• The non-farm wage sector accounted for only 7% of total employment, with most in informal self-employment.

2.2 Changing Employment Structure

• A significant shift from agriculture to non-farm employment has occurred over the past decade.
• The share of non-farm employment increased from 11% in 2001 to 30% in 2011, and to 45% when considering secondary jobs.
• Young men have been the main drivers of this shift, with the share of young men in agriculture dropping from 89% in 2001 to 55% in 2011.
• Young women have shifted from unpaid family farming to wage employment, particularly in the agricultural sector.

2.3 Earnings and Employment Outcomes

• Earnings have increased across all sectors, with agriculture and unskilled workers seeing the most growth.
• The median monthly earnings increased by 66% between 2006 and 2011, from Rwf 18,175 to Rwf 30,175 (in 2011 prices).
• Low-earning jobs decreased from 54% to 33% of the workforce, with a large portion of low earners being underemployed.

2.4 Challenges in Employment Outcomes

• Underemployment is on the rise, particularly among young workers, rural populations, and those in certain occupations.
• Despite job creation, the formal private sector remains small, and most new entrants are absorbed into the informal non-farm sector.
• The gender gap in earnings has widened, with women earning less than men, especially in non-farm wage employment.

Key Findings and Recommendations

• Labor Transition: The shift from agriculture to non-farm employment is a key driver of growth and poverty reduction, but progress has slowed in recent years.
• Earnings Growth: Earnings have increased significantly, especially for unskilled workers and those in agriculture, though disparities persist.
• Underemployment: A large portion of the workforce remains underemployed, particularly in rural areas and among women.
• Formal Sector Limitations: The formal private sector is growing but still small, meaning most jobs will be in the informal sector.
• Future Challenges: Rwanda needs to create more off-farm jobs to absorb the growing labor force, especially as the working-age population is expected to increase by 220,000 per year between 2015 and 2020.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Strengthen infrastructure to support agricultural productivity and market access.
  • Improve the business environment in the informal sector to promote job creation.
  • Address the gender earnings gap through targeted policies and education.
  • Ensure timely budget execution and attract more capital inflows to sustain growth.

Annex Highlights

• Annex 1.1: Inflows of Burundian refugees had a positive impact on private consumption but also increased pressure on public resources.
• Annex 1.2: China's economic turbulence affected Rwanda's import structure, with a large share of imports coming from China.
• Annex 2.1: Definitions of key economic and employment terms are provided for clarity.

Conclusion

Rwanda has maintained steady economic growth and macroeconomic stability, driven by a shift from agriculture to non-farm employment and increased productivity. However, challenges such as underemployment, slow job creation in the formal sector, and the widening gender earnings gap remain. The country needs to continue its focus on diversifying the economy, improving the informal sector, and enhancing agricultural productivity to sustain growth and reduce poverty.