2015年-世界发展银行全球_Tanzania_Poverty_Assessment_215页_7mb

Tanzania Mainland Poverty Assessment Summary (March 2015)

Core Content

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of poverty and inequality trends in Tanzania Mainland from 2007 to 2011/12, using data from the Household Budget Survey (HBS) and rebased GDP figures. It highlights the progress made in reducing poverty and extreme poverty, the improvements in living conditions and human development outcomes, and the persistent challenges in achieving equitable growth and reducing inequality.

Main Points

1. Poverty and Inequality Trends

• Decline in Poverty and Extreme Poverty: Poverty and extreme poverty rates have declined since 2007, with the basic needs poverty rate dropping from 34.4% to 28.2% and extreme poverty from 11.7% to 9.7%.
• Improvements in Living Conditions: There have been notable improvements in housing conditions, access to modern amenities (e.g., television, mobile phones), and agricultural land ownership.
• Moderate and Stable Inequality: The Gini coefficient, which measures inequality, declined modestly from 39 in 2001-07 to 36 in 2011/12, indicating a relatively stable level of inequality.

2. Poverty Profile

• Still Many Poor People: Around 12 million people remain below the poverty line, with a significant portion (around 10 million) in rural areas.
• Characteristics of the Poor: The poor are more likely to have large family sizes, lower education levels, and less access to employment and basic services.
• Migration and Poverty: Migration is associated with improved economic conditions, but many migrants still face challenges. Domestic remittances play a role in poverty reduction.

3. Economic Growth and Poverty

• Economic Growth: Tanzania experienced an average GDP growth rate of 6.3% from 2008 to 2013, with increased volatility.
• Growth Elasticity of Poverty: The growth elasticity of poverty is higher when measured by household consumption (-4.0) than by GDP per capita (-1.02), indicating a stronger link between consumption growth and poverty reduction.
• Pro-Poor Growth: Poverty reduction has been more pronounced among the poorest groups, suggesting a shift toward more inclusive growth since 2007.

4. Geographic Variations in Poverty Decline

• Regional Disparities: Poverty decline has been uneven across geographic domains, with some regions experiencing more significant reductions than others.
• Endowments and Returns: Improvements in assets and education have contributed to poverty reduction, while the returns to these endowments have also increased.

5. Inequality Between Geographic Domains

• Urban-Rural Inequality: The gap between urban and rural areas remains significant, driven by differences in endowments and returns.
• Determinants of Inequality: Access to infrastructure, education, and economic opportunities plays a critical role in urban-rural disparities.

6. Inequality of Opportunity

• Consumption Inequality: Inequality of opportunity is evident in both consumption and income, with family background and community characteristics playing a major role.
• Individual Circumstances: Individual factors such as education and employment also contribute to inequality of opportunity.

7. Demographic Pressures and Poverty

• Population Growth: Tanzania's population is projected to reach 100 million by 2040, which poses challenges for poverty reduction.
• Demographic Transition: Fertility rates remain high, while mortality rates have declined, affecting the demographic structure and dependency ratios.
• Policy Implications: Addressing demographic pressures requires targeted policies to improve access to education, healthcare, and employment opportunities.

Key Information

• Poverty Line: The national basic needs poverty line is T Sh 36,482 per adult per month, while the food poverty line is T Sh 26,085 per adult per month.
• Data Sources: The HBS 2011/12 and rebased GDP figures (base year 2007) are central to the analysis.
• Poverty Reduction: The decline in poverty is attributed to both increased consumption and reduced inequality, with the latter having a more significant impact.
• Education and Health: Education enrollment has improved, but outcomes remain weak. Maternal and child mortality rates have declined, though not as significantly as infant mortality.

Conclusion

Tanzania has made progress in reducing poverty and extreme poverty since 2007, with a notable shift toward pro-poor growth. However, significant challenges remain, including persistent urban-rural inequality, a high concentration of people around the poverty line, and demographic pressures. The report underscores the importance of addressing these issues through targeted policies and further research to ensure sustainable and equitable poverty reduction.