2015年-世界发展银行全球_Tanzania_Mainland_Poverty_Assessment_180页_4mb

Summary of Tanzania Mainland Poverty Assessment

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of poverty and inequality trends in Tanzania Mainland from 2007 to 2011/12, utilizing data from the Household Budget Survey (HBS) and new GDP figures. It highlights the progress made in reducing poverty and extreme poverty, the improvement in living conditions and human development outcomes, and the uneven geographic distribution of these changes. The report also examines the relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction, the role of migration, and the impact of demographic pressures on poverty.

Main Findings

1. Poverty and Extreme Poverty Decline Since 2007

• Basic Needs Poverty: Declined from 34.4% in 2007 to 28.2% in 2011/12.
• Extreme Poverty: Reduced from 11.7% to 9.7%.
• Poverty Line: Based on the national basic needs poverty line of T Sh 36,482 per adult per month and the food poverty line of T Sh 26,085 per adult per month.
• Depth and Severity: Declined by 35% and 48%, respectively, indicating a reduction in the level of deprivation among the poor.

2. Improvements in Living Conditions and Human Development

• Housing and Amenities: Significant improvements in housing conditions and access to modern amenities such as television and mobile phones.
• Agricultural Land Ownership: Increased, but possession of productive assets (e.g., mechanized equipment, big livestock) remains limited.
• Education: Primary education enrollments increased in 2001-07 but declined slightly in 2007-11/12. Lower secondary education saw marked expansion.
• Health and Nutrition: Infant and child mortality rates declined, but maternal mortality improvements were less significant.
• Basic Infrastructure: Access to electricity and piped water remains limited, especially in rural areas.

3. Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction

• GDP Growth: Averaged 6.3% from 2008 to 2013, with increased volatility.
• Growth Elasticity of Poverty:
  • -1.02 when using GDP per capita.
  • -4.0 when using mean household consumption.
• Poverty Reduction Impact:
  • 40% from consumption growth.
  • 60% from inequality reduction.
• Pro-Poor Growth: Emerged from 2007-2011/12, with the poor benefiting disproportionately from economic growth, in contrast to the earlier period 2001-07 where growth primarily benefited the rich.

4. Geographic Disparities in Poverty Reduction

• Urban vs. Rural:
  • Rural areas have a higher incidence of poverty (around 70% of the population lives in rural areas).
  • Urban poverty: About 1.9 million people live in poverty, with 750,000 in extreme poverty.
• Regional Trends:
  • The poorest groups in the country experienced the most significant improvements in consumption.
  • The share of consumption accruing to the poorest 20% of the population increased by more than 16%.
  • The second quintile saw a 5% increase in consumption share, while the top quintiles saw a 4% decline.

5. Inequality Trends

• Gini Coefficient:
  • Declined from 39 in 2001-07 to 36 in 2011/12.
  • Tanzania's inequality level is below the Sub-Saharan Africa average of 45.1 and lower than the low-income countries average of 40.
• Urban-Rural Inequality:
  • Driven by differences in endowments and returns to education and other assets.
  • Community infrastructure (e.g., local markets and roads) has had a positive impact on poor households.

6. Inequality of Opportunity

• Consumption Inequality:
  • The contribution of family background and community characteristics to inequality is significant.
  • Individual circumstances (e.g., education, health) also play a role in shaping inequality of opportunity.
• Income Inequality:
  • Similar patterns of inequality of opportunity are observed, with the poorest groups experiencing lower returns from their endowments.

7. Demographic Pressures

• Population Growth:
  • Projected to reach 100 million by 2040.
  • Population density is expected to be similar to China's by 2050.
• Fertility and Mortality:
  • Fertility remains high, while mortality rates have fallen rapidly.
  • The dependency ratio is expected to decline, but not as sharply as in East Asia.
• Demographic Transition:
  • The transition is expected to be slow and challenging, particularly in rural areas.

Key Information

• Data Sources:
  • HBS 2007 and 2011/12.
  • New rebased GDP figures from December 2014.
• Methodology:
  • Adjustments were made to ensure comparability between HBS 2007 and 2011/12.
  • Nonparametric and parametric imputation methods were used to address data inconsistencies.
• Policy Implications:
  • The report emphasizes the need for pro-poor growth strategies.
  • It highlights the importance of policy mechanisms that promote income and consumption growth among the poor.
  • Demographic pressures require a combination of poverty alleviation and prevention policies.

Conclusion

Tanzania has made notable progress in reducing poverty and extreme poverty since 2007, with the poor benefiting disproportionately from economic growth. However, challenges remain, particularly in rural areas and among those clustered around the poverty line. The report underscores the need for continued efforts to address inequality and demographic pressures, ensuring that the gains made are sustained and expanded.