2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Estimating_Potential_Growth_in_the_Middle_East_and_Central_Asia_27页_773kb

报告摘要

Summary of "Estimating Potential Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia"

Core Content

This paper analyzes the potential growth in the Middle East and Central Asia (MENAP and CCA) and explores the factors influencing it. It highlights the slowdown in potential growth compared to other emerging and developing economies (EMDCs) and evaluates the effectiveness of supply-side drivers in boosting growth.

Main Findings

Potential Growth Variability: Potential growth rates vary significantly across MENAP and CCA countries. Oil importers generally have lower potential growth than the EMDC average, while oil exporters—particularly in the GCC and CCA—have among the highest non-oil potential growth rates globally.
Slower Growth: Since the global financial crisis, potential growth in MENAP and CCA has slowed more than in other EMDCs. Over the next five years, it is expected to decline by 0.75 percentage points below the EMDC average.
Reasons for Slowdown:
- In CCA, the slowdown is mainly due to lower total factor productivity (TFP) growth, which reflects weak structural reforms, overreliance on commodities, and negative demographics.
- In MENAP, the slowdown is primarily driven by lower labor contributions to potential growth, due to reduced public spending and high unemployment, especially in the GCC.
- In oil importers, lower investment-to-GDP ratios and strained public finances have reduced the contribution of physical capital to potential growth.
Key Drivers:
- TFP is the most critical driver for potential growth in both oil exporters and importers. It is less constrained than labor and physical capital.
- Physical capital remains important, especially for oil importers, where investment is limited due to weak investor confidence and financial constraints.
- Labor is a significant contributor, but its potential is limited in the medium-term due to demographic trends and the lack of skill development.

Supply-Side Drivers

1. TFP Growth

TFP growth is essential for unlocking higher potential growth, especially in the oil importers.
TFP growth has been slower in MENAP and CCA compared to other EMDCs.
TFP is calculated as the residual after accounting for labor and capital contributions in a production function framework.

2. Physical Capital Accumulation

In oil exporters, especially the GCC, physical capital has been the main driver of non-oil growth due to high oil revenues.
In oil importers, investment-to-GDP ratios have declined, limiting the contribution of physical capital to growth.
For oil importers, increasing investment could significantly raise potential growth.

3. Labor Contribution

Labor is a key driver of growth, especially in oil importers with large and growing populations.
In the GCC, labor is also a major factor, though constrained by the availability of foreign workers.
In MENAP oil importers, high unemployment and reliance on remittances have reduced workforce participation and skill levels.

Prospects for Raising Potential Growth

TFP Growth should be a top priority, as it is less constrained and has the most significant impact on growth.
Physical capital accumulation is crucial for oil importers, particularly in the CCA, where investment has been weak.
Political stability and security are essential for improving confidence and enabling reforms, especially in the MENAP region.
Structural reforms in the CCA can help reverse the trend of declining growth potential.

Methodology and Data

Two main methods are used to estimate potential growth:
- Statistical Filters (e.g., Hodrick-Prescott (HP), Baxter-King (BK), and Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF)) to separate cyclical and trend components of GDP.
- Production Function Approach to decompose growth into contributions from labor, physical capital, and TFP.
The production function assumes:
- A physical capital depreciation rate of 0.1.
- A capital share of 0.50 for oil exporters and 0.35 for oil importers.
The results are robust to various data assumptions and filter variations.

Challenges and Limitations

Data limitations in MENAP and CCA economies (e.g., short and inconsistent time series) make it difficult to apply more complex multivariate models.
The end-point problem is a challenge in statistical filtering, where estimates near the end of the sample are unstable.
The paper uses forecast data to mitigate this issue.

Conclusion

The slowdown in potential growth in MENAP and CCA is more pronounced than in other EMDCs.
TFP growth and physical capital investment are the most effective levers for increasing potential growth.
Political stability and structural reforms are essential for unlocking these growth drivers.

Key Information

Period of Analysis: 1991–2019.
Countries Studied: 19 MENAP and CCA countries, including GCC, ACTs, and CCA oil exporters/importers.
Main Drivers:
- TFP: Most critical for long-term growth.
- Physical capital: Important for oil importers.
- Labor: Significant but constrained in the medium-term.
Robustness:
- The results are consistent across different statistical filters and production function assumptions.
- The paper includes robustness tests for various parameters and filter settings.