2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Remittances_Channel_and_Fiscal_Impact_in_the_Middle_East_North_Africa_and_Central_Asia_40页_1mb

Summary of Remittances Channel and Fiscal Impact in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia

Core Content

This paper investigates the fiscal impact of remittances in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia (MENA and CCA) by analyzing how external shocks in remittance-sending countries affect tax revenues in recipient countries. It uses a three-step empirical approach to trace the transmission channels of remittances to public finances, focusing on their effects on private demand components (consumption, investment, and imports) and the sensitivity of tax revenues to these components.

The study is based on panel data from 17 remittance-dependent countries in the MENA and CCA regions for the period 1990–2009. It highlights the procyclical nature of remittances with respect to the economic conditions of sending countries and their indirect influence on government revenue through changes in private consumption and imports.

Main Findings

1. Procyclical Nature of Remittances

   • Remittances are strongly procyclical with respect to the income levels of sending countries.
   • A downturn in the sending country leads to a decline in remittances to the recipient country, while a recovery leads to an increase.
   • This was evident during the 2009 global financial crisis, where remittances declined, and during the 2010 recovery, they increased, particularly affecting Central Asia and the Caucasus (CCA) countries due to their heavy reliance on Russian remittances.

2. Impact on Private Demand

   • Remittances are primarily spent on consumption and imports, rather than investment.
   • They have a significant positive effect on the consumption ratio and import ratio, but no robust effect on aggregate investment.
   • This suggests that remittances do not directly contribute to long-term growth, but rather to short-term consumption and import activity.

3. Fiscal Impact via Tax Revenues

   • Remittances influence sales tax and trade tax revenues through their impact on consumption and imports.
   • The tax revenue ratios (sales, trade, and total) are positively correlated with remittances, indicating that remittances can serve as a fiscal buffer during economic downturns and a source of increased tax revenue during recoveries.
   • During the 2009 downturn, remittances accounted for 11–46% of the change in the primary balance in CCA countries, due to the decline in Russian sending country income.
   • In 2010, the global recovery led to an increase in remittance-driven tax revenues across all recipient countries, with CCA countries again most affected due to the stronger rebound in Russian income.

Key Information

• Remittance flows in the MENA and CCA region have grown significantly, with some countries receiving over 5% of GDP in remittances.
• The World Bank estimates that in 2009, global remittances were US$416 billion, or 0.7% of global GDP.
• The elasticity of remittances to sending country income is around 2, showing a strong and stable relationship.
• Elasticity of tax revenue ratios to remittances is positive, with sales tax and trade tax being particularly sensitive to remittance-driven consumption and imports.
• The impact of remittances on government revenue is indirect, through its influence on private demand and tax bases.
• Exchange rate appreciation can reduce remittances, as it increases the cost for remitters, but remittances in the sending country currency may increase if the goal is to send a fixed amount of money in local currency.
• Robustness checks confirm the main findings, including the use of a gravity model of remittances and three-stage least squares (3SLS) estimation.

Methodology

• The paper uses a three-step approach:

  1. Remittance Equation: Links remittances to sending and receiving country income, migration stock, financial development, and exchange rates.
  2. Private Demand Equation: Estimates the elasticity of consumption, imports, and investment with respect to remittances.
  3. Tax Revenue Equation: Analyzes the sensitivity of tax revenue ratios to the components of private demand.

• The reduced-form estimation directly links remittances to tax revenue ratios, using the exogenous variation in sending country income to isolate the fiscal impact.

Policy Implications

• The fiscal impact of remittances is significant, especially in CCA countries which are heavily reliant on Russian remittances.
• Governments in these regions may need to adjust fiscal policies in response to remittance fluctuations, as they can have large effects on tax revenues.
• The study underscores the importance of remittances as a source of fiscal stability, but also highlights the moral hazard risk if governments become too reliant on these inflows for fiscal sustainability.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that remittances act as a channel for transmitting external shocks to public finances, with procyclical behavior and a strong influence on consumption and imports. The fiscal impact is most pronounced in CCA countries, and the results are robust across different estimation techniques. The findings suggest that remittances can provide a buffer during economic downturns and a source of increased revenue during recovery periods, emphasizing the need for policy considerations regarding their role in public finance.