2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Regional_Economic_Outlook_Middle_East_and_Central_Asia_Update_18页_1mb

Summary of the World Economic and Financial Surveys: Regional Outlook for MENAP

Core Content

The Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region's economic outlook for 2017 is shaped by global developments, particularly commodity prices, global growth, and monetary policy trends. While global growth is expected to rise from 3.1% in 2016 to 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018, the MENAP region faces mixed outcomes. The MENAP oil exporters are projected to experience slower growth in 2017 due to oil production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement, while non-oil growth is expected to improve as fiscal consolidation eases. MENAP oil importers, on the other hand, are expected to see a gradual recovery in growth, reaching 4.4% in 2018.

Main Views

• Global Growth and Commodity Prices: Global growth is projected to rise steadily, supporting trade and commodity prices, which in turn benefit the MENAP region. However, higher interest rates may increase fiscal vulnerabilities.

• Oil Market Uncertainty: The OPEC+ agreement has temporarily boosted oil prices, but long-term outlook remains uncertain due to compliance issues, potential production increases, and weak global demand.

• Fiscal Adjustment:

  • Oil exporters have seen significant fiscal deficits due to low oil prices, but improved non-oil primary balances in 2016 suggest progress in fiscal adjustment.
  • Fiscal consolidation is expected to continue over the medium term, with deficits projected to fall below 1% of GDP by 2022 if reforms are sustained.
  • GCC countries are expected to implement further energy price reforms, including the introduction of a value-added tax (VAT) in 2018.
  • Countries with large fiscal buffers (e.g., Kuwait, Qatar, UAE) can adjust more gradually, while those with smaller buffers (e.g., Algeria, Oman) need to move faster.

• Structural Reforms:

  • A shift from oil-based economies to more diversified and inclusive growth is necessary. This involves reducing dependence on oil, improving the business environment, and promoting private sector employment.
  • Labor market reforms are critical, especially in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to increase employment of nationals in the private sector.
  • Education and human capital development are also important to improve productivity and address youth unemployment.

• External Balances:

  • With higher oil prices and fiscal consolidation, the current account of MENAP oil exporters is expected to move toward balance in 2017.
  • However, exchange rate appreciation in the GCC and Algeria may reduce competitiveness, while conflict countries like Yemen and Libya face severe currency depreciation due to instability.

• Financial Sector:

  • The financial sector in the region remains generally healthy but faces profitability challenges and liquidity constraints.
  • Credit growth has slowed, and central banks need to be more active in liquidity management.
  • Domestic debt issuance could reduce reliance on external financing, but must be done carefully to avoid crowding out private sector credit.

• Inflation and Policy Impact:

  • Inflation is expected to rise in 2017 due to higher oil prices, subsidy reductions, and exchange rate depreciation, but should ease over the medium term with improved fiscal and monetary policies.
  • Egypt has seen particularly high inflation due to the depreciation of its currency and the removal of subsidies.

Key Information

• Global Growth: 3.1% in 2016, 3.5% in 2017, 3.6% in 2018.
• MENAP Growth: 2.7% in 2016, 2.6% in 2017, 3.4% in 2018.
• MENAP Oil Exporters:
  • Real GDP growth: 2.1% in 2016, 1.9% in 2017, 2.9% in 2018.
  • Fiscal deficits: Average of 10% of GDP in 2015 and 2016, projected to fall to 4.25% in 2017 and below 1% by 2022.
• MENAP Oil Importers:
  • Real GDP growth: 3.9% in 2016, 4.0% in 2017, 4.4% in 2018.
  • Fiscal deficits: Average of 7% of GDP in 2016, down from 9.25% in 2013.
• Energy Subsidies:
  • MENAP oil exporters account for over 20% of global energy subsidies, totaling $115 billion in 2015.
  • Subsidies have dropped from $190 billion in 2014 to $86 billion in 2016, but remain high.
  • Formula-based pricing regimes in Oman, Qatar, and UAE have led to greater reductions in subsidies.

Risks and Challenges

• Global Risks:
  • Protectionism and faster U.S. monetary tightening could worsen global financial conditions.
  • Uncertainty in the oil market, including compliance with OPEC+ and potential production increases, remains a key risk.
• Regional Risks:
  • Conflict countries (e.g., Iraq, Yemen) face high uncertainty due to security conditions and data limitations.
  • Fiscal sustainability is a concern, especially for oil importers with high debt levels.
  • Inflation remains elevated in 2017 but is expected to moderate in the medium term.

Conclusion

The MENAP region is at a crossroads, with the need to diversify economies, implement structural reforms, and manage fiscal and external vulnerabilities. While the global recovery supports economic activity, policy consistency and effective implementation will be key to achieving long-term resilience and inclusive growth.