2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Malaysia_Selected_Issues_27页_1mb

Summary of the Selected Issues Paper on Malaysia

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of key labor market developments and fiscal policy considerations in Malaysia, focusing on trends in employment, labor supply, and productivity, as well as the role of non-citizen workers and gender disparities. It was prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for periodic consultation with Malaysia and is based on data available up to January 25, 2018.

Main Points

A. Labor Supply

• Malaysia's labor force has become increasingly urban and more educated over the last three decades.
• The share of tertiary-educated workers in the labor force has quadrupled, while the share of 15–24-year-olds has declined.
• Female labor force participation has improved, reaching 54.3% in 2016, but remains below regional and OECD averages.
• The share of non-citizen workers in the labor force increased to about 15.5% in 2016, primarily in lower-skilled jobs.
• Non-citizens have lower educational attainment but higher participation rates compared to citizens.

B. Employment

• Malaysia has experienced net employment growth since the 1980s, with the services sector now being the largest employer.
• The share of employment in agriculture, forestry, and fishing has declined, while the manufacturing and retail sectors have seen increases.
• Female employment has grown faster than male employment, especially in health, hospitality, and public sectors.
• Female labor force participation is expected to rise to 59% by 2020 under the 11th Malaysia Plan (11MP).
• The 11MP includes measures to improve maternity leave, increase female representation in corporate boards, and offer tax exemptions for returning female workers.

C. Unemployment

• The overall unemployment rate has remained stable for over a decade, between 2.9% and 3.7%, with a slight increase in 2016.
• Youth unemployment and female unemployment are higher than the national average, particularly in rural areas and among tertiary-educated workers.
• The rising share of tertiary-educated workers in the unemployment pool indicates a skills mismatch.
• Public spending on education is higher in Malaysia than in peer countries, but the quality of education needs improvement to address this issue.

D. Labor Compensation and Productivity

• Labor's share in national income increased from 30% in 2005 to ~35% by 2015.
• Average real salaries and wages increased at a 3% compound annual rate between 2011 and 2016.
• The gender earnings gap in Malaysia is smaller than in most advanced and emerging market economies, with female workers earning about 4% less than males in 2016.
• The minimum wage framework has been implemented, with rates increasing from RM 900 to RM 1,000 in Peninsular Malaysia and from RM 800 to RM 920 in Sabah, Sarawak, and Labuan.

Key Information

Labor Market Trends

• The labor market is evolving to support a more skilled and productive workforce, aligning with Malaysia's aspiration to become a high-income economy.
• Female labor force participation is a priority, with policies aimed at increasing it to 59% by 2020.
• The reliance on non-citizen workers has increased due to slower growth in the citizen population, particularly in lower-skilled jobs.

Fiscal Policy Considerations

• The calibration of fiscal objectives is essential to ensure debt sustainability and support economic growth.
• Malaysia's debt target is set at 34% of GDP, with a sensitivity analysis showing the impact of different scenarios on the fiscal balance.
• The report emphasizes the need for a gradual and phased approach to reforming non-citizen worker policies to support the transition to a more skilled labor market.

Productivity and Education

• Labor productivity growth has improved since 2014, with the 11MP aiming for a 3.7% average growth rate.
• Education quality and alignment with business needs are critical to reducing skills mismatch and improving productivity.
• The government has launched education blueprints to enhance access to education and vocational training, particularly in higher education.

Conclusion

• Malaysia's labor market is undergoing significant transformation, driven by urbanization, increased female participation, and reliance on non-citizen workers.
• Policies to support female employment and improve education quality are key to achieving the 11MP goals and long-term economic growth.
• Fiscal policy must be calibrated carefully to maintain debt sustainability while supporting growth-enhancing investments in both human and physical capital.
• A phased and market-based approach to non-citizen worker policies is necessary to ensure a smooth transition to a more skilled and productive labor market.