净零目标和法案-英-49页_9mb

NET ZERO TARGETS AND LAWS OVERVIEW

Part 1: Net Zero - Definition & Scientific Context

• Net Zero refers to a state where emissions equal removals, with targets needing annual achievement.
• Global carbon budget limits CO₂ emissions to 32.9 Gt/year (2022), with India contributing 4Gt CO₂ in the same year.
• Untapped fossil fuel reserves exceed the carbon budget, requiring leaving them unburned.
• Humanity emits twice the emissions the Earth can absorb naturally: excess is accumulating (currently ~29Gt/year).
• IPCC recommends Net Zero by 2050 globally to meet the 1.5°C target, based on Scenario Shared Pathway (SSP1-19).
• Many targets are legally binding (26/199 countries). Transparency issues (monitoring, inconsistent standards) and credibility gaps persist, with most commitments appearing weak.5

Part 2: Definitions & Design

• Key Distinctions:
  • Carbon Negative (> removals)
  • Climate Positive / Net Negative
  • Carbon Neutral (offsetting elsewhere)
  • Offsetting
• Core Elements for credible targets:
  • Clear Baseline Year (often 1990 for developed, 2005-2010 for developing countries)
  • Clear Target Year (often 2050)
  • Target coverage (Scopes 1,2,3)
  • Annual reporting
  • Accountability mechanisms
  • Transparency
• Common pitfalls: Hyped language ambiguity, weak targets, long time horizons relative to political cycles, use of carbon offsets, ignoring historical emissions.

Part 3: Pathways to Achieve Net Zero

• Achieving Net Zero requires simultaneous deep emissions cuts and carbon removal (CDR). Global reliance on CDR must be unprecedented scale.
• Pathway framework (Credibility Parameters):
  • Target: Publication, legal status, time frame
  • Coverage: Defined sectors, baseline year
  • Removals: Specified reliance on removals
  • Accountability: Reporting mechanism, annual progress
• Countries differ widely in Net Zero targets, baselines, and plan credibility.

Part 4: India's Pathway to Net Zero

• India's global emissions (0.417 Gt CO₂e in 2022) are significant, with peak emissions forecast between 2030-2045.
• **Key Sectors (Current Emissions):
  • Power: 34%
  • Agriculture: 6%
  • Industry: 18%
  • Transport: 9%
• Priorities for Net Zero:
  • Electrification: Lead sector for decarbonization, enabling other sector reductions.~5 million ha needed for renewables (~Portugal's area) Co-location with agriculture (agrivoltaics, wind/farming integration) considered.
  • Energy Efficiency: Cost-effective solution.
  • Land Use/LForestry: Major challenge, can function as significant carbon sinks (~33Tg CO₂e).
  • Steel/Cement Production: Harder but achievable reductions (~15-35%).
• The report highlights the complexity and challenges in designing credible Net Zero plans, calling for robust policy frameworks, monitoring mechanisms, and urgent action.