2017年-OPEC月度石油市场报告_October2017_106页_2mb

报告摘要

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report Summary - 11 October 2017

Core Content Overview

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global oil market dynamics for September 2017, focusing on crude oil prices, world oil demand and supply, product markets, refinery operations, tanker market trends, and stock movements. It also includes a feature article on the outlook for winter product markets.

Main Points and Key Information

Crude Oil Price Movements

OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) increased by $3.84 or 7.7% in September to $53.44/b, its highest level since July 2015.
ICE Brent averaged $55.51/b, up $3.64 or 7%, while NYMEX WTI averaged $49.88/b, up $1.82 or 3.8%.
The ORB reached $50.13/b year-to-date (y-t-d), a 30.1% increase from the previous year.
ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened significantly to $5.64/b, the widest since August 2015.
Hedge funds raised their net long positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI futures and options by 196,579 contracts (about 197 mb of crude oil).
The Brent crude contract curve flipped into backwardation through December 2021, indicating tighter supplies and strong refinery demand.
WTI contango worsened, signaling large oversupply, while Dubai market was in backwardation, leading to record premiums for Middle Eastern crudes.

World Economy

Global economic growth is expected to rise to 3.6% in 2017 and 3.5% in 2018, up from previous forecasts.
OECD growth is forecast at 2.2% in 2017 and 2.1% in 2018.
US growth is revised to 2.3% in 2018, while EU growth is at 1.9%.
Russia growth is revised to 1.6% in 2018, up from 1.4%.
India and China growth expectations remain unchanged for both 2017 and 2018.

World Oil Demand

World oil demand in 2017 is expected to grow by 1.5 mb/d, a 30 tb/d upward revision from the previous report.
2018 demand is projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d, also a 30 tb/d upward revision.
OECD and China showed higher-than-expected demand, contributing to the positive revisions.

World Oil Supply

Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2017, down from a 0.1 mb/d downward revision.
Non-OPEC supply is projected to grow by 0.9 mb/d in 2018, after a 60 tb/d downward revision.
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production is expected to average 6.5 mb/d in 2018, an increase of 0.2 mb/d from the current year.
OPEC crude oil production in September increased by 88 tb/d, averaging 32.75 mb/d.

Product Markets and Refinery Operations

Product markets in the Atlantic Basin improved due to higher gasoline demand.
Middle distillate markets globally improved, driven by healthy demand, depleted stocks, and regional refinery maintenance.
Asian and European product markets saw some pressure due to low demand and high inventory levels.
Refinery margins in the USGC and Europe remained strong, with USGC margins at $26.20/b, well above the $6-7/b level seen last year.
Winter fuel demand is expected to support refinery margins in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Tanker Market

Dirty vessel spot freight rates rose in September, driven by increased activity across trading routes.
Aframax rates were the main driver of sentiment, while VLCC and Suezmax rates showed lesser growth.
Clean tanker freight rates also improved, mainly due to a stronger west of Suez market and prompt replacements.
Spot freight rates are expected to strengthen in 4Q17 due to winter seasonal demand.
The tanker market still faces oversupply of ships, which limits rate gains.

Stock Movements

OECD commercial oil stocks fell to 2,996 mb in August, 171 mb above the five-year average.
Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus of 146 mb and 25 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively.
Days of forward cover stood at 63.2 days, 2.6 days above the five-year average.

Balance of Supply and Demand

OPEC crude oil supply in 2017 is estimated at 32.8 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2016.
OPEC crude oil supply in 2018 is projected at 33.1 mb/d, about 0.3 mb/d higher than in 2017.

Feature Article: The Winter Product Markets Outlook

Summer product markets in major consuming regions performed well, driven by seasonal gasoline demand.
US refinery margins hit a two-year high of $2/gal, supported by fears of a fuel shortage before the Labour Day weekend.
Middle distillate markets improved globally due to healthy demand, depleted stocks, and refinery maintenance.
Winter demand is expected to be colder than last year, leading to higher distillate consumption, particularly heating oil.
Distillate fuel supplies are tighter this winter, shifting from the excess supplies seen in the last two years.
US distillate inventories started 2017 above the five-year range but have since fallen below it.
Hurricane Harvey disrupted 4.4 mb/d of refining capacity in the USGC, further tightening supplies.
Hedge funds accumulated record high heating oil futures positions, anticipating tight distillate supplies.
Winter product markets are expected to see stronger refinery margins and support for the oil market due to improving economic activity and higher demand for winter fuels.

Key Drivers and Outlook

Oil market rebalancing is a major factor in price increases, with OPEC and non-OPEC producers continuing to cut output.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iraq's Kurdistan region, and lower distillate stocks ahead of winter supported prices.
Strong refining margins and arbitrage flows are expected to continue into winter, driven by tight supplies and higher demand for heating oil.
Speculative activity in the futures market remains strong, with hedge funds showing a net long position of over 760 mb of oil.
Winter demand is forecast to be higher than last year, creating favorable conditions for product markets.