东西方中心-帕劳的气候变化：关键部门的指标和考虑因素（英文）-2020.10-68页_10mb

Summary of Climate Change in Palau: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors

Core Content

This report, Climate Change in Palau: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors, is part of the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) series, which aims to evaluate climate change impacts and adaptive capacity in the Pacific Islands. It was developed through collaboration among federal, state, and local agencies, NGOs, academia, and community groups, with oversight from the Pacific RISA program and contributions from numerous technical experts.

Main Points

Overview of PIRCA and the Report

• The report is designed to inform decision-makers in Palau about climate change indicators and their implications for key sectors.
• It is based on published research and insights from stakeholders and includes contributions from the PIRCA Advisory Committee and Technical Contributors.
• The PIRCA series continues a long-standing effort to exchange information on climate science and risk management in the Pacific Islands, with the 2012 report as a precedent.

Key Climate Change Indicators in Palau

Air Temperature

• Hot days have increased significantly, with Koror experiencing an average of 46 hot days per year in the 1950s, rising to 100 days in recent years.
• Cool nights have decreased, with Koror seeing an average of 40 cool nights per year in the 1950s, dropping to 13 in recent years.
• Average air temperature has increased, with a warming trend observed since 1951.
• Future projections indicate continued warming, with an expected increase of 1.1–1.8°F (0.6–1.0°C) by 2030, 1.8–3.4°F (1.0–1.9°C) by 2050, and 3.8–7.2°F (2.1–4.0°C) by 2090 under the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5).

Rainfall

• Average rainfall has shown no long-term change since record-keeping began in Koror, but extreme rainfall events are expected to become more frequent and intense.
• Drought frequency and duration are projected to decrease, especially under the high emissions scenario.

Typhoons and Storms

• The frequency of tropical cyclones is expected to remain relatively stable, but intensity will likely increase.
• More intense storms will increase the risk of severe damage to infrastructure and ecosystems.

Sea Level Rise

• Sea levels in Palau are rising, influenced by natural variability from El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
• Rising sea levels will exacerbate high tide flooding, storm surge, and coastal erosion.

Ocean Changes

• Oceans are warming and becoming more acidic, leading to coral bleaching and ecosystem disruption.
• Coral bleaching is projected to occur annually by 2040, threatening marine biodiversity and coastal communities.

Human Health and Equity Considerations

• Extreme heat events will increase, posing risks to vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly, and those with chronic illnesses.
• Equity is a central concern, as marginalized groups are more exposed to climate impacts and often excluded from planning processes.

Infrastructure and Water Resources

• Palau's infrastructure and population are concentrated in low-lying coastal areas, making them particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and extreme weather.
• Freshwater availability is at risk due to rising temperatures and saltwater intrusion, which could affect water supply and sanitation.

Key Sectors and Impacts

• Farming and agroforestry: Climate variability and extreme weather may affect crop yields and water availability.
• Fisheries and ocean resources: Warming oceans and changing rainfall patterns could impact marine ecosystems and fisheries.
• Public health and disaster management: Increased health risks from extreme heat and storm damage will require enhanced preparedness and response strategies.
• Ecosystems and biodiversity: Rising temperatures, ocean acidification, and stronger storms will alter habitats and species distributions.
• Cultural and historical resources: Coastal erosion and flooding could threaten heritage sites and traditional practices.
• Recreation and tourism: Climate change may impact tourism by altering natural landscapes and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events.
• Coastal decision-makers: Need to address risks to infrastructure, such as the national hospital and main port.
• Water and utilities managers: Must adapt to changing rainfall patterns and increased freshwater demand.

Research and Information Needs

• There is a need for more research and data to better understand and manage climate risks.
• Climate data sources include NOAA databases and other scientific assessments.
• Traceable accounts are important for tracking climate-related changes and impacts over time.

Conclusion

The report outlines the current and projected climate changes in Palau, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies across multiple sectors. It highlights the importance of equity in climate planning and the increasing vulnerability of coastal and rural areas. The findings provide a foundation for policy development and community resilience in the face of a changing climate.