世界发展银行-How-Much-Will-Poverty-Rise-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa-in-2020__5页_626kb

Summary of Poverty & Equity Notes: May 2020·Number 20

Core Content

This note analyzes the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for 2020, using a comprehensive database of household surveys and GDP projections from the World Bank and IMF. The key focus is on estimating the increase in extreme poverty and the distributional effects of the economic slowdown caused by the pandemic.

Main Findings

• Poverty Increase: The pandemic is expected to cause a sharp decline in GDP per capita growth in SSA, reducing it by about 5-7 percentage points compared to pre-pandemic forecasts. This could increase the poverty rate in the region by more than two percentage points.

• Extreme Poverty: An estimated 26 to 58 million additional people in SSA may fall into extreme poverty (defined as living below US$1.90 per day in 2011 PPP). This would reverse about 5 years of poverty reduction progress.

• Most Affected Countries: The largest increases in poverty rates are expected in Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. Nigeria is projected to have the highest number of new poor, with an estimated 6.9 million individuals falling into extreme poverty.

• Vulnerable Groups: The new poor are more likely to be:

  • Living in urban areas
  • Self-employed outside of agriculture
  • Working in service or sales occupations
  • Having at least some primary education
  • Children under 18
  • Females
  • Living in female-headed households

• Distributional Effects: The methodology assumes a neutral distribution of the economic shock, but in reality, certain groups are more vulnerable. For example, urban areas and service sectors are more economically disrupted due to social distancing measures.

• GDP Growth Scenarios:

  • The baseline scenario (based on 2019 IMF forecasts) projects a GDP per capita growth of 1.7%.
  • With the pandemic, the projected GDP per capita growth is 3.1% (baseline) or 5.5% (low scenario), representing a significant contraction.

• Sectoral Impact:

  • A 50% drop in income for 3 months in the service sector could push an additional 18.4 million people into poverty.
  • A 50% drop in income for 6 months in the service sector could push an additional 24.1 million people into poverty.
  • The combined impact of income drops in the service, industry, and self-employed sectors could lead to even greater poverty increases.

• Regional Variations:

  • The impact of the pandemic varies significantly across countries. For example, in Seychelles, the poverty rate is expected to increase by 11.6 percentage points, while in Ethiopia, it is expected to increase by 1.3 percentage points.
  • The methodology used in this note aligns with that of the World Bank, and the results are based on the assumption that GDP growth is fully reflected in consumption, without considering saving or borrowing.

Key Information

• Methodology:

  • Uses SSAPOV survey data and GDP projections from the World Bank and IMF.
  • Compares poverty rates under pre-COVID and post-COVID forecasts.
  • Assumes a neutral distribution of the economic shock, which may not reflect real-world disparities.

• Poverty Line:

  • The poverty line used is US$1.90 per capita per day in 2011 PPP.

• Data Coverage:

  • Surveys from 45 out of 48 SSA countries are used.
  • The SSAPOV data represents 77% of the 2020 population.

• Implications:

  • The pandemic could set back poverty reduction efforts in SSA by about 5 years.
  • The analysis suggests that regular updates are necessary as the pandemic evolves and more data becomes available.

Conclusion

The coronavirus pandemic is expected to have a severe impact on poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa, with significant increases in extreme poverty and a reversal of progress made in recent years. The analysis highlights the vulnerability of certain socio-demographic groups and the importance of targeted policy responses to mitigate the effects of the crisis.