2018全球医疗行业展望（英文版）_32页-1mb

Deloitte 2018 Global Health Care Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Deloitte Global Health Care Outlook outlines the evolving landscape of health care, emphasizing the shift from volume-based to value-based models. It highlights the challenges and opportunities faced by health care stakeholders globally, including providers, governments, payers, and patients, in delivering smart, patient-centered health care that is efficient, accessible, and sustainable.

Main Themes and Key Points

1. Smart Health Care: Definition and Vision

Smart health care is defined as a system where:

• Appropriate treatments are delivered at the right time, place, and to the right patient.
• Clinicians use technology for more accurate diagnosis and treatment.
• All stakeholders across the care ecosystem communicate and use information effectively.
• Patient data is centralized and easily accessible.
• Patients are informed and actively involved in their care.
• New, cost-effective delivery models expand access to underserved populations.
• Efficiency improves, and waste declines.

2. Global Health Care Sector Issues in 2018

• Financial Pressures: Rising health care costs and stagnant or declining margins are a major challenge, driven by aging populations, infrastructure upgrades, and technological advancements.
• Health Care Spending: Global health care spending is projected to grow at an annual rate of 4.1% from 2017 to 2021, reaching USD $8.7 trillion by 2020. The US spends the most per person (USD $11,356 in 2021), but does not always achieve better health outcomes.
• Aging Population: Life expectancy is expected to increase by over a year between 2016 and 2021, with more than 656 million people over 65, leading to higher demand for care.
• Chronic Diseases: The prevalence of chronic diseases like diabetes, heart disease, and cancer is increasing, even in developing markets.
• Dementia: Dementia affects 50 million people globally, with numbers expected to double every 20 years. By 2018, it is projected to become a trillion-dollar disease.

3. Strategies for Cost Management and Efficiency

• Consolidation and Collaboration: Health care providers are forming partnerships, mergers, and joint ventures to achieve economies of scale and improve operational efficiency.
• Operational Reforms: Hospitals and health systems are exploring alternative staffing models, shifting patients to outpatient services, and reducing administrative and supply costs.
• Revenue Cycle Optimization: Leveraging new technologies and analytics tools to improve coding and reduce claims denials.
• Innovation and IP: Hospitals are capitalizing on their intellectual property by selling or licensing medical devices, training videos, and health IT tools.

4. Transition from Volume to Value

• The shift from fee-for-service (FFS) to value-based payment models is accelerating, especially in the US due to MACRA.
• Other countries are also adopting value-based care through reforms that focus on operational efficiency, population health, and wellness.
• Examples include Canada's Connecting to Care program, Mexico's CASALUD model, and Japan's Integrated Community Care System.

5. Population Health Management and Wellness

• There is a growing emphasis on prevention and holistic health over episodic care.
• Population health management uses data and analytics to identify at-risk individuals and target interventions.
• The "quantified self" movement is increasing, with consumers using wearables, apps, and mobile health (mHealth) to monitor their health.
• The mHealth market has grown rapidly, with over 100,000 apps available and projected revenue reaching USD $26 billion by 2017.
• Interoperability among health devices is a key barrier to leveraging big data for wellness and prevention.

6. Social Determinants of Health

• Social determinants, such as housing instability, food insecurity, and lack of education, significantly impact health outcomes.
• Health care stakeholders are increasingly investing in addressing these social needs to improve patient outcomes and reduce costs.
• Examples include initiatives to support vulnerable families and integrate social care with health care systems.

Key Considerations for Stakeholders

• System Efficiency: Improving efficiency beyond mere profitability is essential for long-term sustainability.
• Consolidation: Operating as a consolidated system can unlock new efficiencies and synergies.
• Diversification: Expanding beyond traditional hospital services into outpatient, home care, and technology-driven models is critical.
• Technology Integration: Embracing analytics, mHealth, and other digital tools can enhance care delivery and reduce waste.
• Accountability and Transparency: Sharing accountability and improving transparency across the care ecosystem is necessary for achieving high-value care.

Conclusion

The 2018 outlook underscores the need for a strategic, collaborative, and technology-driven approach to health care. As the sector moves toward value-based models, stakeholders must address financial, operational, and social challenges to deliver smarter, more sustainable health care.