2018全球医疗行业展望（英文版）_30页_1mb

2018 Global Health Care Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Global Health Care Outlook highlights the ongoing transformation of the health care sector towards smart health care, emphasizing quality, outcomes, and value as the key watchwords for the 21st century. This shift is driven by the need for innovative, cost-effective, and patient-centered solutions that leverage technology to enhance care delivery and improve the patient experience.

Main Points

What Smart Health Care Looks Like

• Appropriate treatment at the right time and place for the right patient
• Clinicians using technology for more accurate diagnosis and treatment
• Effective communication and information sharing across the care ecosystem
• Centralized and easily accessible patient data
• Clear role assignment for healthcare professionals
• Patient involvement in their treatment plan
• New delivery models to increase access to underserved populations
• Improved efficiency and reduced waste

Global Health Care Spending Trends

• Health care spending is projected to grow at an annual rate of 4.1% from 2017 to 2021, up from 1.3% in the previous period.
• Per-person spending varies significantly, with the US spending $11,356 in 2021 and Pakistan only $53.
• Global life expectancy is expected to increase from 73 to 74.1 years by 2021, driven by declining infant mortality rates.
• Chronic diseases such as cancer, heart disease, and diabetes are on the rise, even in developing markets.
• Dementia is a growing concern, with an estimated 50 million people living with it in 2017 and expected to double every 20 years.

Key Issues in 2018

• Creating a positive margin in a changing health economy
• Moving from volume to value-based care
• Responding to health policy and complex regulations
• Investing in exponential technologies
• Engaging with consumers and improving the patient experience
• Shaping the future workforce

Critical Challenges

Financial Pressures

• Rising costs and stagnant or declining margins are a major concern for both public and private health systems.
• Aging populations in developed markets (e.g., Japan, Western Europe) and growing populations in developing markets are driving up health care costs.
• Infrastructure upgrades and therapeutic advancements are adding to the financial burden.
• Affordability and insurance coverage remain problematic, especially in the US where deductible costs are rising faster than insurance coverage.

Examples of Financial Challenges

• United Kingdom's NHS has faced a historic funding slowdown, with growth averaging 1.2% per year in real terms between 2010-2011 and 2015-2016.
• China's Zero-Markup Drug Policy has reduced hospital profit margins.
• Brazil's private health care providers have had to adjust their reimbursement models, reducing profitability.
• India's hospitals are under pressure from price controls and insurance companies' bargaining power.

Strategies for Improvement

Cost Management and Efficiency

• System-wide efficiencies are needed beyond marginal improvements.
• Consolidation through mergers and acquisitions is being used to achieve economies of scale.
• Diversification beyond core hospital services is being pursued to offset declining inpatient revenues.
• Improving revenue cycle systems by reducing the number of supply chain vendors and noncritical employees.

Value-Based Care

• The sector is transitioning from fee-for-service (FFS) to value-based and outcomes-based payment models.
• MACRA in the US is accelerating this shift by offering financial incentives for coordinated care models.
• Population health management is gaining traction, focusing on prevention and holistic care rather than episodic treatment.

Wellness and Prevention

• Consumer engagement is increasing, with individuals taking more control over their health through mHealth and wearables.
• The mHealth market has grown rapidly, with over 100,000 apps available and revenue projected to reach $26 billion by 2017.
• Population health initiatives aim to improve clinical effectiveness, reduce costs, and enhance safety.

Social Determinants of Health

• Social determinants such as housing instability, food insecurity, transportation, education, and income significantly influence health outcomes.
• These factors are often beyond individual control and can lead to persistent health disparities.
• Addressing these determinants is crucial for reducing avoidable costs and improving public health outcomes.

Conclusion

The global health care sector is at a pivotal moment, with stakeholders working to deliver smart, efficient, and patient-centered care. While technological innovation and value-based models offer promising solutions, the complexity and scale of the sector pose significant challenges. Collaboration, interoperability, and system-wide transformation are key to achieving sustainable and effective health care delivery.