巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场：贸易紧张造成了伤害，但伤害并不对等-20190724-7页_1mb

Emerging Markets – Trade Tensions Hurt, But Unevenly

Core Content

This document analyzes the impact of rising trade tensions and slower global growth on emerging market (EM) exports. It highlights how these external pressures affect different EM regions unevenly, based on their trade linkages and economic structures.

Key Findings

1. Trade Tensions and Global Growth Impact

• Trade Tensions: Rising tariffs and technology disputes can lead to trade diversion, creating both winners and losers in the EM space.
• Global Growth: Slower global growth tends to reduce EM trade flows.
• Global Value Chains (GVCs): Trade tensions may disrupt GVCs, increasing uncertainty and affecting EM economies differently.

2. Regional Exposure to Trade

• Emerging Asia: Trade (exports + imports) accounts for the highest share of GDP among EMs. Countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand are particularly open and trade-intensive.
• Central and Eastern Europe (CEEMEA): Trade is a significant portion of the economy in Hungary and the Czech Republic, with Poland also showing notable exposure.
• Latin America (Latam): Trade is relatively less significant in most Latam countries, except for Mexico and Chile, which are more integrated with global markets.

3. Major Trade Partners

• China: A critical export destination for commodity-rich EMs such as South Africa (iron ore, coal) and Saudi Arabia (oil). China also influences CEEMEA through its trade links with Germany.
• Mexico: Deeply integrated with the US through value chains, emphasizing the importance of the NAFTA deal (now USMCA).
• Emerging Asia: Strong trade links with China, especially for South Korea.
• Chile and Brazil: Both have significant trade exposure to China, with China representing a larger share of their exports than in most Asian countries.

4. Trade Exposure by Region

• Emerging Asia: Exports to the US are relatively low, while exports to China are moderate.
• CEEMEA: Exports to the US are lower, but exports to China are significant for commodity exporters.
• Latam: Exports to the US are dominant, especially for Mexico, while exports to China are also important for Chile and Brazil.

Key Figures and Data

• Fig. 1: Shows the weight of trade in EM economies as a percentage of GDP, highlighting the higher exposure in emerging Asia and CEEMEA.
• Fig. 2: Illustrates the link between trade and domestic employment in EMs, based on OECD data.
• Fig. 3: Displays the share of exports to China and the US for various EM countries, showing the disproportionate impact of China on some Latam economies.
• Fig. 4 and Fig. 5: Provide a visual breakdown of the percentage of EM exports directed to the US and China, respectively.

Legal and Regulatory Information

• The document is prepared by the BNP Paribas group and is a marketing communication, not investment research.
• It is intended for Relevant Persons as defined under MiFID II, including Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties.
• It contains Research for those who have signed up to BNPP Global Markets Research packages or are out of scope of MiFID II unbundling rules.
• The document may include hypothetical or back-tested performance data, which is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of future results.
• No investment advice is provided; the document is for informational and discussion purposes only.
• Confidentiality: The information is provided on a strictly confidential basis and should not be copied or distributed without prior written consent.
• Disclaimers: BNPP disclaims any liability for inaccuracies, omissions, or reliance on the information. Indicative prices are not actual transaction terms.

Conclusion

Emerging markets are affected by trade tensions and global growth slowdowns, but the impact varies significantly by region. Emerging Asia and CEEMEA are more exposed due to their strong trade linkages with China, while Latam is more reliant on the US. Understanding these regional differences is crucial for assessing the vulnerability and opportunities within EM economies.