巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-新兴市场：贸易紧张造成了伤害，但伤害并不对等-20190724-7页_2mb

Emerging Markets Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of how trade tensions and global growth slowdowns affect emerging markets (EMs), with a focus on trade exposure and regional differences. It outlines the economic interdependencies among EMs and their major trade partners, particularly China and the United States.

Key Messages

• Trade Tensions and Global Growth Impact: Rising trade tensions and slower global growth negatively affect EM exports, creating both winners and losers due to trade diversion.
• Regional Exposure to Trade:
  • Emerging Asia (Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand) has the highest trade share relative to GDP.
  • CEEMEA (Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland) has significant trade exposure, especially linked to the Eurozone.
  • Latin America (Mexico, Brazil, Chile) has a relatively lower trade share, except for Mexico which is deeply integrated with the US.
• Trade Partners:
  • Emerging Asia is heavily linked to China, especially for South Korea.
  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is a key manufacturing hub for the Eurozone.
  • China is a major export destination for commodity exporters in CEEMEA (South Africa, Saudi Arabia) and Latin America (Brazil, Chile).
  • Mexico is highly integrated with the US through value chains, emphasizing the role of the NAFTA deal.

Trade Exposure by Region

Emerging Asia

• Strong trade links with China, especially for South Korea.
• Trade represents a large share of GDP, indicating high openness to global trade.

CEEMEA

• Trade is a significant part of the economy, especially in Hungary and the Czech Republic.
• Economic ties to the Eurozone are strong due to its role as a manufacturing hub.
• Chinese demand indirectly impacts CEEMEA through Germany's exporters.

Latin America

• Trade represents a smaller share of GDP, except for Mexico and to a lesser extent Chile.
• China is a major export partner for Brazil (soybean, iron ore) and Chile (copper).
• China's share of total exports in Brazil and Chile is higher than in most Asian countries.

Figures and Data

• Fig. 1: Shows the weight of exports as a percentage of GDP for EM countries in 2018.
• Fig. 2: Highlights trade's impact on domestic employment in EMs, based on OECD data.
• Fig. 3: Illustrates the percentage of exports directed to China and the US for EM countries in 2018.
• Fig. 4 and Fig. 5: Provide a breakdown of the percentage of exports to the US and China respectively.

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

• The document is non-independent research and may contain marketing communication under MiFID II.
• It is intended for Relevant Persons as defined by financial regulations.
• It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any financial instrument.
• Confidentiality is emphasized, and the document may not be copied or distributed without prior consent.
• BNPP may have conflicts of interest due to its involvement in investment banking, underwriting, and advisory services.
• Options, ETFs, and convertible securities are highlighted with specific risk disclosures.
• Regulatory compliance is noted for various countries including the UK, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland.

Conclusion

Emerging markets are affected unevenly by trade tensions and global growth. While China is a critical trade partner for many EMs, especially in commodity exports, the US plays a dominant role in Mexico's trade. The analysis underscores the importance of regional economic structures and trade linkages in determining the vulnerability and opportunities of EMs in the face of global economic shifts.