【世界银行】红海航运危机的深化：影响与展望-2025.2

The Deepening Red Sea Shipping Crisis: Impacts and Outlook

Core Content

The Red Sea shipping crisis has significantly disrupted global trade, maritime transport, and the ecological balance of the region. Initially centered in Yemen, the conflict involving the Houthis has expanded to key maritime zones in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), impacting critical trade routes and infrastructure.

Key Impacts

• Traffic Decline: By late 2024, vessel traffic through the Suez Canal and Bab El-Mandeb Strait dropped by three-fourths compared to historical norms, leading to a sharp increase in detours around the Cape of Good Hope.
• Increased Distances and Times: Travel distances for cargo ships and tankers increased by 48% and 38%, respectively, and travel times rose by up to 45% and 28%, significantly affecting global maritime logistics.
• Trade Diversion: The Asia-Europe corridor has seen a shift in trade activity, with Western Mediterranean ports benefiting and Eastern Mediterranean ports suffering. South Asian ports like Colombo have captured more regional cargo.
• Supply Chain Stress: The World Bank's Global Supply Chain Stress Index rose to 2.3 million TEUs in December 2024, indicating severe delays in container shipping. Eastern Mediterranean and Persian Gulf ports accounted for 26% of the stress, compared to 8% in the previous year.
• Economic Losses: Egypt lost an estimated $7 billion in Suez Canal revenues in 2024, representing about 5% of its GDP. Many Red Sea and Gulf ports experienced declines in trade volumes, with Jordan and Oman seeing the steepest reductions in exports.
• Environmental Damage: Houthi attacks have caused significant oil spills and hazardous cargo leaks, contaminating marine habitats and threatening biodiversity. Fishing activity has declined, and desalination plants have been at risk.
• Internet Outages: Attacks on vessels have damaged undersea fiber optic cables, disrupting global internet connectivity and rerouting 25% of internet traffic across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

Trade and Economic Outlook

• Ceasefire Effects: The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, effective January 19, 2025, and the Houthis' commitment to limit attacks to Israel-linked ships, have increased the potential for reduced disruptions to global trade.
• Trade Recovery Scenarios:
  • A resolution by May 2025 would result in a 5% increase in shipping trade for the European Union and a 6% increase for Red Sea neighboring countries.
  • A rapid resolution by February 2025 would yield even greater economic benefits.
• Freight Rates and Inflation: Despite a 141% increase in shipping costs, inflation has remained stable due to subdued global demand, lower commodity prices, and the presence of long-term contracts that buffer against price volatility.

Conclusion

The Red Sea crisis has had far-reaching economic and environmental consequences, reshaping global trade patterns and straining supply chains. However, the potential for resolution offers hope for recovery, particularly for the Middle East and Mediterranean regions, which stand to benefit significantly from a return to normal maritime operations.