世界银行-红海航运危机的深化_影响与展望（英）-2025.2_16页_6mb

The Red Sea Shipping Crisis, stemming from Houthi attacks in Yemen and expanding into key MENA maritime zones since October 2023, has caused widespread disruptions. Houthi forces conducted over 2,300 conflict events with 1,467 fatalities, targeting commercial vessels leading to 300 incidents by December 2024. Shipping routes shifted dramatically, rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, causing traffic declines in the Red Sea and Suez Canal by 75-80%, along with increased travel times and higher freight rates (Drewry World Container Index up 141%). This impacted global supply chains, raising the Supply Chain Stress Index to 2.3 million TEUs in December 2024.

Trade was significantly altered, with Red Sea and Gulf ports experiencing reduced volumes; Jordan and Oman saw declines of 38-50% in shipping. However, some ports in the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia benefited from trade diversion. Environmentally, attacks led to oil and fertilizer spills, increasing oil slicks by 115.4% and harming marine life, fishing, and desalination plants. Communications cables were also damaged, disrupting global internet connectivity.

The crisis also boosted inflation-containment through logistics diversification, but effects were limited due to unaffected oil prices. With recent ceasefire announcements by Houthis limiting attacks to Israel-linked ships, a gradual recovery is expected. If resolved by May 2025 or earlier, shipping trade could increase; for instance, in Red Sea MENA countries, imports might rise by 1-2%, and exports by 10-17%, highlighting peace dividends and economic benefits from early resolution.