2012年-世界发展银行全球_Thailand_Economic_Monitor_December_2012_35页_2mb

Thailand Economic Monitor - December 2012 Summary

Core Content

This document provides an economic overview and analysis of Thailand for 2012 and 2013, highlighting macroeconomic developments, policy changes, and long-term challenges for sustainable and inclusive growth.

Main Points

1. Macroeconomic Developments

• 2012 Economic Recovery:

  • The economy rebounded from the effects of the severe flooding in late 2011.
  • Real GDP growth was estimated at 4.7% in 2012, driven by household consumption and increased investments from both private and public sectors.
  • Inflation remained low at around 3%, and is expected to stay low in 2013.
  • Net exports contributed negatively to GDP growth due to production disruptions and a sharp slowdown in demand from the EU, China, and ASEAN.

• 2013 Economic Outlook:

  • Projected GDP growth of 5%, with manufacturing production fully recovering from the floods.
  • Exports are expected to grow by 5.5% in US dollar terms in 2013, compared to 3.6% in 2012.
  • Domestic demand, especially private investment, is expected to continue its growth momentum.
  • Household consumption may slow slightly as government stimulus programs, such as the First Car Program, end in 2012.

• Budget and Public Debt:

  • Budget deficit for FY2013 is estimated at 2.5% of GDP, with off-budget spending on water resource management projects adding around Bt60 billion.
  • Public debt is projected to reach close to 50% of GDP in 2013, up from around 45% at the end of 2012.
  • Over 90% of public debt is domestic and long-term, but the government's use of specialized financial institutions (SFIs) to fund programs like the paddy pledging scheme could weaken their balance sheets.

2. Policy Watch

• Paddy Pledging Program:

  • The program, which sets a pledged price around $200 above international rice prices, has cost the government around 3.4% of GDP for the 2011/2012 season.
  • For the 2012/2013 season, the government is expected to spend around 3.8% of GDP.
  • The program has led to a sharp decline in rice exports, with a 50% drop in exports compared to the previous year.
  • The government has not yet released rice stocks to global markets, and the actual losses from the program will only be realized upon sale.

• Minimum Wage Increase:

  • Minimum wages were raised by 40% in 2012, and will be raised to a uniform rate of Bt300 per day in 2013.
  • This increase has led to a rise in average wages by over 10% year-on-year in the second and third quarters of 2012.
  • Despite the wage increases, unemployment did not rise, but underemployment increased by 16.4% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2012.

3. Towards Sustainable and Inclusive Growth

• Skills Development:

  • Skills are crucial for both higher incomes and sustainable, inclusive growth.
  • Education outcomes for secondary school students have not improved over the last 10 years, with significant disparities between Bangkok and other regions.
  • The government needs to focus on improving education quality and on-the-job skills training to address the skills gap and enhance productivity.

• Social Protection and Inclusion:

  • A coordinated approach between universal and targeted social policies can improve opportunities for poor and vulnerable groups.
  • Examples from Brazil, Indonesia, and the Philippines show that combining universal programs (like universal health coverage) with targeted approaches can reduce inequality and improve social mobility.
  • Thailand's income inequality and regional disparities remain high despite rapid GDP growth over the past 15 years.

Key Information

• Global Economic Slowdown:

  • The Eurozone crisis and global economic slowdown have significantly impacted Thai exports, particularly to the EU, China, and ASEAN.
  • World trade volume growth has slowed, affecting Thai export growth.

• Financial Sector:

  • The commercial banking sector remains resilient with strong performance in loan and deposit growth, net profit, and capital adequacy ratios.
  • The insurance industry has expanded, with the National Catastrophe Insurance Fund (NCIF) established to manage risks from natural disasters.
  • Non-bank financial markets have benefited from foreign fund inflows, leading to a record high in stock market capitalization.

• Challenges:

  • The main challenge for Thailand's growth in 2013 is the high uncertainty in global economic prospects, particularly related to the Eurozone crisis.
  • Policies like the paddy pledging scheme and minimum wage increases have significant fiscal and economic implications.
  • Long-term priorities include skills development and reducing income and opportunity inequalities.

Boxes Summary

• Box 1: Highlights the negative impact of the Eurozone crisis and global economic slowdown on Thai exports, especially in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
• Box 2: Discusses the resilience of the financial sector, including commercial banks and the insurance industry, and the role of foreign investment in non-bank financial markets.

Conclusion

The document outlines the economic recovery of Thailand in 2012, the projected growth in 2013, and the challenges posed by global economic conditions. It emphasizes the importance of skills development and social policy in achieving sustainable and inclusive growth, while also addressing the fiscal implications of major policy initiatives.